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Elections·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner

Tom Tiffany 89%

Tommy Thompson 6.8%

Andy Manske 1.3%

Josh Schoemann 1.1%

Polymarket

$72,619 Vol.

Tom Tiffany 89%

Tommy Thompson 6.8%

Andy Manske 1.3%

Josh Schoemann 1.1%

Polymarket

$72,619 Vol.

Tom Tiffany

$6,230 Vol.

89%

Tommy Thompson

$0 Vol.

7%

Andy Manske

$3,224 Vol.

1%

Josh Schoemann

$3,674 Vol.

1%

Tim Michels

$2,910 Vol.

1%

Rebecca Kleefisch

$4,632 Vol.

1%

Eric Hovde

$15,737 Vol.

1%

Sean Duffy

$36,213 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability for the Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11, bolstered by President Trump's January endorsement that prompted rivals like Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann to exit, consolidating grassroots conservative backing alongside major donors such as the Uihleins and Diane Hendricks. Former Gov. Tommy Thompson's March signals of a potential challenge—despite his age of 84—have elevated his odds to 6.7%, reflecting his enduring name recognition amid polls showing uneven GOP voter enthusiasm for Tiffany. Lower probabilities for Eric Hovde, Rebecca Kleefisch, Sean Duffy, and others underscore the cleared field, with party unity favoring the incumbent congressman ahead of the summer contest.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$72,619
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability for the Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11, bolstered by President Trump's January endorsement that prompted rivals like Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann to exit, consolidating grassroots conservative backing alongside major donors such as the Uihleins and Diane Hendricks. Former Gov. Tommy Thompson's March signals of a potential challenge—despite his age of 84—have elevated his odds to 6.7%, reflecting his enduring name recognition amid polls showing uneven GOP voter enthusiasm for Tiffany. Lower probabilities for Eric Hovde, Rebecca Kleefisch, Sean Duffy, and others underscore the cleared field, with party unity favoring the incumbent congressman ahead of the summer contest.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$72,619
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Tiffany" at 89%, followed by "Tommy Thompson" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $72.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Tom Tiffany" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tommy Thompson" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.