Market icon
Elections·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner

Tom Tiffany 86%

Tommy Thompson 8.8%

Eric Hovde 1.1%

Tim Michels 1.1%

Polymarket

$13,957 Vol.

Tom Tiffany 86%

Tommy Thompson 8.8%

Eric Hovde 1.1%

Tim Michels 1.1%

Polymarket

$13,957 Vol.

Tom Tiffany

$6,160 Vol.

86%

Tommy Thompson

$0 Vol.

9%

Eric Hovde

$7,797 Vol.

1%

Tim Michels

$0 Vol.

1%

Andy Manske

$0 Vol.

1%

Josh Schoemann

$0 Vol.

1%

Rebecca Kleefisch

$0 Vol.

1%

Sean Duffy

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany dominates trader consensus at 86% implied probability to win the Republican primary for Wisconsin governor, driven by his incumbency advantage, prior state Senate service, and solid northern Wisconsin base that bolsters his path to statewide support. Former Gov. Tommy Thompson trails at 9%, leveraging historical name recognition despite his age (82) and extended retirement raising viability questions among bettors. No formal candidate announcements, endorsements, or primary polling have surfaced in the past 30 days, sustaining early market positioning reflective of skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of the August 2026 primary. Other contenders like Rebecca Kleefisch and Sean Duffy linger below 1% amid past electoral setbacks and unproven gubernatorial bids.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$13,957
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany dominates trader consensus at 86% implied probability to win the Republican primary for Wisconsin governor, driven by his incumbency advantage, prior state Senate service, and solid northern Wisconsin base that bolsters his path to statewide support. Former Gov. Tommy Thompson trails at 9%, leveraging historical name recognition despite his age (82) and extended retirement raising viability questions among bettors. No formal candidate announcements, endorsements, or primary polling have surfaced in the past 30 days, sustaining early market positioning reflective of skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of the August 2026 primary. Other contenders like Rebecca Kleefisch and Sean Duffy linger below 1% amid past electoral setbacks and unproven gubernatorial bids.

U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany dominates trader consensus at 86% implied probability to win the Republican primary for Wisconsin governor, driven by his incumbency advantage, prior state Senate service, and solid northern Wisconsin base that bolsters his path to statewide support. Former Gov. Tommy Thompson trails at 9%, leveraging historical name recognition despite his age (82) and extended retirement raising viability questions among bettors. No formal candidate announcements, endorsements, or primary polling have surfaced in the past 30 days, sustaining early market positioning reflective of skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of the August 2026 primary. Other contenders like Rebecca Kleefisch and Sean Duffy linger below 1% amid past electoral setbacks and unproven gubernatorial bids.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Tiffany" at 86%, followed by "Tommy Thompson" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $14K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Tom Tiffany" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tommy Thompson" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.