Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$852,964 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$852,964
End Date
Jan 1, 2026
Created At
Jun 18, 2025, 2:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$852,964 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$852,964
End Date
Jan 1, 2026
Created At
Jun 18, 2025, 2:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.