Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Name: Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?
Start: 2026-02-28T19:03:38.168Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Trump

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Mar 31

$780,825 Vol.

Apr 15, 2026

March 31

$743,745 Vol.

<1%

April 15

$4,586 Vol.

11%

April 30

$32,499 Vol.

21%

$780,825 Vol.

March 31

$743,745 Vol.

<1%

April 15

$4,586 Vol.

11%

April 30

$32,499 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?

50%

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

18%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

31%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 21%, followed by "April 15" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" has generated $780.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" is "April 30" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 15" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $780.8K traded on “Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 21¢ for "April 30" in the "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 21% chance that "April 30" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 21¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 79¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" market has an active community of 80 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Note on Middle East Markets

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Related

Comments (80)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?"?

What are the current odds for "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?"?

How will "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?"?

What does a price of 21¢ for "April 30" mean?

When does the "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?"?

What is Polymarket?