Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war now on day 35, where U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have targeted military and government infrastructure but failed to spark mass defections or uprisings. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported assassination in early March did not trigger collapse, as the IRGC and security forces swiftly suppressed lingering 2025–2026 protests through mass executions and internet shutdowns, including a recent execution spree amid uprising fears. President Trump's threats to strike bridges and power plants signal potential escalation, yet historical precedents like Iraq 1991 suggest such blows often rally support around the regime rather than topple it, with no verified internal fractures emerging in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$13,003,627 Vol.
$13,003,627 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$13,003,627 Vol.
$13,003,627 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war now on day 35, where U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have targeted military and government infrastructure but failed to spark mass defections or uprisings. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported assassination in early March did not trigger collapse, as the IRGC and security forces swiftly suppressed lingering 2025–2026 protests through mass executions and internet shutdowns, including a recent execution spree amid uprising fears. President Trump's threats to strike bridges and power plants signal potential escalation, yet historical precedents like Iraq 1991 suggest such blows often rally support around the regime rather than topple it, with no verified internal fractures emerging in the past week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$13,003,627End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war now on day 35, where U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have targeted military and government infrastructure but failed to spark mass defections or uprisings. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported assassination in early March did not trigger collapse, as the IRGC and security forces swiftly suppressed lingering 2025–2026 protests through mass executions and internet shutdowns, including a recent execution spree amid uprising fears. President Trump's threats to strike bridges and power plants signal potential escalation, yet historical precedents like Iraq 1991 suggest such blows often rally support around the regime rather than topple it, with no verified internal fractures emerging in the past week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,003,627End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war now on day 35, where U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have targeted military and government infrastructure but failed to spark mass defections or uprisings. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported assassination in early March did not trigger collapse, as the IRGC and security forces swiftly suppressed lingering 2025–2026 protests through mass executions and internet shutdowns, including a recent execution spree amid uprising fears. President Trump's threats to strike bridges and power plants signal potential escalation, yet historical precedents like Iraq 1991 suggest such blows often rally support around the regime rather than topple it, with no verified internal fractures emerging in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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