Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Ended: Jan 31

Feb 28

$3,094,809 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$3,094,809
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 31, 2025, 12:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Ended: Jan 31

Feb 28

$3,094,809 Vol.

Polymarket

January 1

$46,674 Vol.

No

January 2

$43,862 Vol.

No

January 3

$32,057 Vol.

Yes

January 4

$149,130 Vol.

No

January 5

$39,924 Vol.

Yes

January 6

$74,343 Vol.

No

January 7

$121,454 Vol.

Yes

January 8

$121,551 Vol.

Yes

January 9

$130,958 Vol.

No

January 10

$76,801 Vol.

Yes

January 11

$56,361 Vol.

Yes

January 12

$84,888 Vol.

Yes

January 13

$124,311 Vol.

Yes

January 14

$64,884 Vol.

No

January 15

$187,037 Vol.

Yes

January 16

$93,018 Vol.

No

January 17

$78,334 Vol.

No

January 18

$34,925 Vol.

No

January 19

$49,672 Vol.

No

January 20

$42,312 Vol.

No

January 21

$165,199 Vol.

Yes

January 22

$61,434 Vol.

No

January 23

$33,974 Vol.

No

January 24

$46,123 Vol.

Yes

January 25

$88,605 Vol.

No

January 26

$178,115 Vol.

No

January 27

$188,948 Vol.

Yes

January 28

$198,778 Vol.

No

January 29

$115,018 Vol.

Yes

January 30

$113,588 Vol.

Yes

January 31

$252,528 Vol.

Yes

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Beware of external links.