Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
$1,806,128 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
January 19
$48,990 Vol.
<1%
January 19
$48,990 Vol.
<1%
January 20
$24,274 Vol.
1%
January 20
$24,274 Vol.
1%
January 22
$2,680 Vol.
35%
January 22
$2,680 Vol.
35%
January 23
$2,675 Vol.
30%
January 23
$2,675 Vol.
30%
January 24
$1,791 Vol.
33%
January 24
$1,791 Vol.
33%
January 25
$5 Vol.
49%
January 25
$5 Vol.
49%
January 26
$0 Vol.
50%
January 26
$0 Vol.
50%
January 27
$0 Vol.
50%
January 27
$0 Vol.
50%
January 28
$0 Vol.
50%
January 28
$0 Vol.
50%
January 29
$0 Vol.
50%
January 29
$0 Vol.
50%
January 30
$0 Vol.
50%
January 30
$0 Vol.
50%
January 31
$0 Vol.
50%
January 31
$0 Vol.
50%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Created At: Dec 31, 2025, 12:40 PM ET
Volume
$1,806,128End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Dec 31, 2025, 12:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
$1,806,128 Vol.
January 19
$48,990 Vol.
<1%
January 20
$24,274 Vol.
1%
January 22
$2,680 Vol.
35%
January 23
$2,675 Vol.
30%
January 24
$1,791 Vol.
33%
January 25
$5 Vol.
49%
January 26
$0 Vol.
50%
January 27
$0 Vol.
50%
January 28
$0 Vol.
50%
January 29
$0 Vol.
50%
January 30
$0 Vol.
50%
January 31
$0 Vol.
50%
About
Volume
$1,806,128End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Dec 31, 2025, 12:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.




Beware of external links.
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