Hezbollah leadership, led by Secretary-General Naim Qassem, rejected disarmament proposals and ceasefire negotiations with Israel as recently as March 25, 2026, amid renewed hostilities that shattered the November 2024 truce. Early March rocket attacks from Lebanon prompted Israeli airstrikes on over 500 targets, escalating the conflict and prompting Lebanon's government to ban Hezbollah military operations and reaffirm commitments under UN Resolution 1701 to clear non-state arms south of the Litani River. Despite the Lebanese army's phased disarmament plan—initially south of Litani, extended to a four-month second phase in February—Hezbollah has refused compliance, continuing attacks and vowing resistance. No official policy announcement committing to relinquish weapons has emerged, leaving trader consensus skeptical of near-term resolution absent diplomatic breakthroughs or intensified Lebanese state enforcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Hezbollah disarm by...?
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$906,286 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
December 31
24%
$906,286 Vol.
March 31
$889,347 Vol.
<1%
December 31
$16,939 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Hezbollah leadership, led by Secretary-General Naim Qassem, rejected disarmament proposals and ceasefire negotiations with Israel as recently as March 25, 2026, amid renewed hostilities that shattered the November 2024 truce. Early March rocket attacks from Lebanon prompted Israeli airstrikes on over 500 targets, escalating the conflict and prompting Lebanon's government to ban Hezbollah military operations and reaffirm commitments under UN Resolution 1701 to clear non-state arms south of the Litani River. Despite the Lebanese army's phased disarmament plan—initially south of Litani, extended to a four-month second phase in February—Hezbollah has refused compliance, continuing attacks and vowing resistance. No official policy announcement committing to relinquish weapons has emerged, leaving trader consensus skeptical of near-term resolution absent diplomatic breakthroughs or intensified Lebanese state enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET
Volume
$906,286End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Hezbollah leadership, led by Secretary-General Naim Qassem, rejected disarmament proposals and ceasefire negotiations with Israel as recently as March 25, 2026, amid renewed hostilities that shattered the November 2024 truce. Early March rocket attacks from Lebanon prompted Israeli airstrikes on over 500 targets, escalating the conflict and prompting Lebanon's government to ban Hezbollah military operations and reaffirm commitments under UN Resolution 1701 to clear non-state arms south of the Litani River. Despite the Lebanese army's phased disarmament plan—initially south of Litani, extended to a four-month second phase in February—Hezbollah has refused compliance, continuing attacks and vowing resistance. No official policy announcement committing to relinquish weapons has emerged, leaving trader consensus skeptical of near-term resolution absent diplomatic breakthroughs or intensified Lebanese state enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Volume
$906,286End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hezbollah leadership, led by Secretary-General Naim Qassem, rejected disarmament proposals and ceasefire negotiations with Israel as recently as March 25, 2026, amid renewed hostilities that shattered the November 2024 truce. Early March rocket attacks from Lebanon prompted Israeli airstrikes on over 500 targets, escalating the conflict and prompting Lebanon's government to ban Hezbollah military operations and reaffirm commitments under UN Resolution 1701 to clear non-state arms south of the Litani River. Despite the Lebanese army's phased disarmament plan—initially south of Litani, extended to a four-month second phase in February—Hezbollah has refused compliance, continuing attacks and vowing resistance. No official policy announcement committing to relinquish weapons has emerged, leaving trader consensus skeptical of near-term resolution absent diplomatic breakthroughs or intensified Lebanese state enforcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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