Trader consensus prices Alberta independence at just 14.6% implied probability of passing a referendum by year-end, driven by recent polls showing only 25-30% support amid two-thirds opposition, per Abacus Data, Angus Reid, and Leger surveys from February-March 2026. Separatist group Stay Free Alberta claimed on March 31 to have surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold under the Citizen Initiative Act for a constitutional referendum, potentially slated for October 19 alongside Premier Danielle Smith's planned sovereignty questions on immigration and federal powers. However, Elections Alberta verification is pending, and a First Nations injunction hearing on April 7 alleges treaty rights violations, underscoring legal and procedural barriers to even holding a vote, let alone passage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$39,594 Vol.
$39,594 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$39,594 Vol.
$39,594 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices Alberta independence at just 14.6% implied probability of passing a referendum by year-end, driven by recent polls showing only 25-30% support amid two-thirds opposition, per Abacus Data, Angus Reid, and Leger surveys from February-March 2026. Separatist group Stay Free Alberta claimed on March 31 to have surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold under the Citizen Initiative Act for a constitutional referendum, potentially slated for October 19 alongside Premier Danielle Smith's planned sovereignty questions on immigration and federal powers. However, Elections Alberta verification is pending, and a First Nations injunction hearing on April 7 alleges treaty rights violations, underscoring legal and procedural barriers to even holding a vote, let alone passage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$39,594End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices Alberta independence at just 14.6% implied probability of passing a referendum by year-end, driven by recent polls showing only 25-30% support amid two-thirds opposition, per Abacus Data, Angus Reid, and Leger surveys from February-March 2026. Separatist group Stay Free Alberta claimed on March 31 to have surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold under the Citizen Initiative Act for a constitutional referendum, potentially slated for October 19 alongside Premier Danielle Smith's planned sovereignty questions on immigration and federal powers. However, Elections Alberta verification is pending, and a First Nations injunction hearing on April 7 alleges treaty rights violations, underscoring legal and procedural barriers to even holding a vote, let alone passage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$39,594End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices Alberta independence at just 14.6% implied probability of passing a referendum by year-end, driven by recent polls showing only 25-30% support amid two-thirds opposition, per Abacus Data, Angus Reid, and Leger surveys from February-March 2026. Separatist group Stay Free Alberta claimed on March 31 to have surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold under the Citizen Initiative Act for a constitutional referendum, potentially slated for October 19 alongside Premier Danielle Smith's planned sovereignty questions on immigration and federal powers. However, Elections Alberta verification is pending, and a First Nations injunction hearing on April 7 alleges treaty rights violations, underscoring legal and procedural barriers to even holding a vote, let alone passage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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