NATO’s treaty framework, requiring unanimous consent among 32 members for fundamental changes and one year’s notice under Article 13 for any withdrawal, combined with U.S. domestic legal hurdles mandating congressional approval for exit, underpins traders’ strong consensus against dissolution before 2027. Recent alliance activity reinforces this view, including the scheduled July 2026 Ankara summit, continued defense spending increases across members, and operational continuity amid Russia-Ukraine tensions and Middle East developments. While U.S. rhetoric on burden-sharing, Greenland, and alliance support has created friction and prompted discussions of reduced U.S. commitments, these have not triggered formal exit processes or structural collapse. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unprecedented congressional vote enabling rapid U.S. withdrawal or a cascading series of member exits, though both remain remote given institutional inertia and the absence of coordinated alternatives.