Name: Will a country leave BRICS before 2026?
Start: 2025-07-10T16:50:35.713788Z
End: 2025-12-31T23:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal.

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will a country leave BRICS before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new country accepts an invitation to join BRICS between July 23 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only new member states, not new partner states, will be considered toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this country will be information from BRICS members (e.g., https://brics.br/en/about-the-brics, etc.); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will BRICS add a new member by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Jair Bolsonaro has left Brazil for any length of time between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Jair Bolsonaro may have exited Brazilian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Brazil for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Jair Bolsonaro exits Brazilian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Jair Bolsonaro left Brazil, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bolsonaro leave Brazil in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". 

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO) or provides official written notice of withdrawal to the Director-General of the WTO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of withdrawl refers to the submission of a written notice of withdrawal as per Article XV of the Marrakesh Agreement establishing the World Trade Organization (https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/wto_agree_art15_oth.pdf).

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and the WTO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

US announces withdrawal from WTO in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.

2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
 
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.

EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

EU dissolves before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either China (People's Republic of China) or Japan formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from either the Chinese or Japanese government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.

Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil's unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is below 6.3% when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#desemprego) public release of the Q4 2025 figure unemployment, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure. 

Because this market's resolution source reports quarterly unemployment to one decimal point (e.g. 4.5%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.


Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republic of the Congo's president, Denis Sassou Nguesso, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Denis Sassou Nguesso will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position (e.g. when he steps down in consequence of a lost election) or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of the Republic of the Congo within this market's timeframe.

Reporting of a lost election without a de facto loss of presidential position or power will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by end of 2026?

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Félix Tshisekedi, is removed from power for any length of time between this market’s creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

President Félix Tshisekedi will be considered removed from power if he resigns, is detained, otherwise loses his position (including by stepping down following a lost election), or is prevented from fulfilling the duties of the presidency within this market’s timeframe.

Reporting of a lost election without a de facto loss of presidential position or power will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Von der Leyen out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the the Federal Senate (Senado Federal) votes to proceed with any impeachment of Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil Alexandre de Moraes by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of the first such vote the Senate undertakes (e.g., if the Federal Senate decides to vote on the impeachment of Alexandre de Moraes and it fails to pass, this market will resolve to "No").

This market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the Senate successfully votes to proceed with this impeachment, regardless of the impeachment's outcome.

If it becomes impossible to impeach Alexandre de Moraes while he is in his role as Minister (e.g., he resigns) and the "Yes" condition has not yet been met, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Russia for any length of time between January 2, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Assad may have exited Russian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Russia for this market to resolve to "Yes".

If Assad exits Russia maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Russia, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Assad leaves Russia before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel or Brigitte Macron announce their intention to divorce between by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Emmanuel or Brigitte Macron and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Emmanuel & Brigitte Macron divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will a country leave BRICS before 2026?

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Market Context

Will a country leave BRICS before 2026?

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Will a country leave BRICS before 2026?

Order Book

Market Context

Will a country leave BRICS before 2026?

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