Trader consensus favors no BRICS departure in 2026 at 73% implied probability, driven by the absence of official statements or actions from member states indicating exit intentions following the successful October 2024 Kazan summit, where Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE reaffirmed commitments amid expansion discussions. Recent developments include invitations to 13 partner countries like Nigeria and Turkey, signaling growing cohesion and de-dollarization efforts, with no credible reports of internal discord prompting withdrawals—unlike Argentina's preemptive 2024 opt-out under President Milei. Geopolitical alignments and economic interdependence further bolster stability, though U.S. election rhetoric on tariffs introduces minor uncertainty.