Market icon
Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Cait Conley 56%

Beth Davidson 20%

Peter Chatzky 13.1%

Effie Phillips-Staley 8.8%

Polymarket

$54,012 Vol.

Cait Conley 56%

Beth Davidson 20%

Peter Chatzky 13.1%

Effie Phillips-Staley 8.8%

Polymarket

$54,012 Vol.

Cait Conley

$25,493 Vol.

56%

Beth Davidson

$21,760 Vol.

20%

Peter Chatzky

$2,580 Vol.

13%

Effie Phillips-Staley

$807 Vol.

9%

John Cappello

$656 Vol.

3%

Mike Sacks

$840 Vol.

1%

John Sullivan

$1,158 Vol.

1%

Jessica Reinmann

$719 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Army veteran Cait Conley at 56% implied probability to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her strong national endorsements from groups like New Dems Action Fund, LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, VoteVets, and Giffords, alongside her appeal as a battle-tested West Point graduate in a district prioritizing public safety and veterans' issues. Recent Impact Research polling from late March showed Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson leading primary voters by six points due to superior name recognition and favorability, boosting her to 19.5% odds, though traders view Conley as better positioned against incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler in the general. Peter Chatzky holds 13.1% amid backlash over past bawdy Facebook posts and Israel criticisms in this diverse Hudson Valley battleground, with escalating attack ads and fundraising reports ahead of early voting potentially shifting dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$54,012
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Army veteran Cait Conley at 56% implied probability to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her strong national endorsements from groups like New Dems Action Fund, LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, VoteVets, and Giffords, alongside her appeal as a battle-tested West Point graduate in a district prioritizing public safety and veterans' issues. Recent Impact Research polling from late March showed Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson leading primary voters by six points due to superior name recognition and favorability, boosting her to 19.5% odds, though traders view Conley as better positioned against incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler in the general. Peter Chatzky holds 13.1% amid backlash over past bawdy Facebook posts and Israel criticisms in this diverse Hudson Valley battleground, with escalating attack ads and fundraising reports ahead of early voting potentially shifting dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$54,012
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cait Conley" at 56%, followed by "Beth Davidson" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $54K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Cait Conley" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Beth Davidson" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.