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Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Micah Lasher 44%

Alex Bores 31%

Jack Schlossberg 19%

Erik Bottcher 5.1%

Polymarket

$104,410 Vol.

Micah Lasher 44%

Alex Bores 31%

Jack Schlossberg 19%

Erik Bottcher 5.1%

Polymarket

$104,410 Vol.

Micah Lasher

$4,468 Vol.

44%

Alex Bores

$2,795 Vol.

31%

Jack Schlossberg

$5,255 Vol.

19%

Erik Bottcher

$1,823 Vol.

5%

George Conway

$1,409 Vol.

4%

Liz Krueger

$36,794 Vol.

1%

Julie Menin

$22,807 Vol.

1%

Lina Khan

$1,801 Vol.

1%

Cameron Kasky

$2,298 Vol.

1%

Andrew Cuomo

$1,559 Vol.

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,664 Vol.

<1%

Keith Powers

$2,473 Vol.

<1%

Gale Brewer

$1,244 Vol.

<1%

Carolyn Maloney

$1,789 Vol.

<1%

Brad Lander

$1,255 Vol.

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

$6,916 Vol.

<1%

Liam Elkind

$1,454 Vol.

<1%

Scott Stringer

$1,964 Vol.

<1%

Cynthia Nixon

$1,641 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open race to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler in New York's 12th Congressional District, trader consensus favors Assemblyman Micah Lasher at 43.5% implied probability for the June 23 Democratic primary, driven by Michael Bloomberg's March 12 endorsement and multi-million-dollar super PAC commitment alongside Nadler's public boost. Early March polls show a tight contest among Lasher, Assemblyman Alex Bores (28.5%), and Kennedy heir Jack Schlossberg (19%), with high undecideds around 33%, but Bores faces attacks from an AI industry super PAC over his tech regulation stance, while Schlossberg recently criticized billionaire influence amid his own name recognition. Upcoming fundraising reports and voter outreach could shift the closely contested field.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$104,410
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open race to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler in New York's 12th Congressional District, trader consensus favors Assemblyman Micah Lasher at 43.5% implied probability for the June 23 Democratic primary, driven by Michael Bloomberg's March 12 endorsement and multi-million-dollar super PAC commitment alongside Nadler's public boost. Early March polls show a tight contest among Lasher, Assemblyman Alex Bores (28.5%), and Kennedy heir Jack Schlossberg (19%), with high undecideds around 33%, but Bores faces attacks from an AI industry super PAC over his tech regulation stance, while Schlossberg recently criticized billionaire influence amid his own name recognition. Upcoming fundraising reports and voter outreach could shift the closely contested field.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$104,410
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Micah Lasher" at 44%, followed by "Alex Bores" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $104.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Micah Lasher" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Bores" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.