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Elections·Primaries

NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Laura Gillen 74%

Nicholas Sciretta 14%

Taylor Darling 5.7%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Laura Gillen 74%

Nicholas Sciretta 14%

Taylor Darling 5.7%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Laura Gillen

$2,844 Vol.

74%

Nicholas Sciretta

$0 Vol.

17%

Taylor Darling

$0 Vol.

6%

Gian Jones

$1,362 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen commands trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win the NY-04 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her narrow 2024 general election victory flipping the competitive Long Island district and dominant fundraising with over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Challengers trail amid minimal resources: Nicholas Sciretta at 17.5% garners some grassroots interest via local town halls despite negligible $7 raised, while Taylor Darling's 5.7% reflects limited traction from her February launch criticizing Gillen's ICE funding vote—though Darling's prior 2024 state Senate primary loss tempers expectations. No public polls exist; State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement could influence turnout in this closed primary.

Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen commands trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win the NY-04 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her narrow 2024 general election victory flipping the competitive Long Island district and dominant fundraising with over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Challengers trail amid minimal resources: Nicholas Sciretta at 17.5% garners some grassroots interest via local town halls despite negligible $7 raised, while Taylor Darling's 5.7% reflects limited traction from her February launch criticizing Gillen's ICE funding vote—though Darling's prior 2024 state Senate primary loss tempers expectations. No public polls exist; State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement could influence turnout in this closed primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen commands trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win the NY-04 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her narrow 2024 general election victory flipping the competitive Long Island district and dominant fundraising with over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Challengers trail amid minimal resources: Nicholas Sciretta at 17.5% garners some grassroots interest via local town halls despite negligible $7 raised, while Taylor Darling's 5.7% reflects limited traction from her February launch criticizing Gillen's ICE funding vote—though Darling's prior 2024 state Senate primary loss tempers expectations. No public polls exist; State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement could influence turnout in this closed primary.

Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen commands trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win the NY-04 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her narrow 2024 general election victory flipping the competitive Long Island district and dominant fundraising with over $2 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Challengers trail amid minimal resources: Nicholas Sciretta at 17.5% garners some grassroots interest via local town halls despite negligible $7 raised, while Taylor Darling's 5.7% reflects limited traction from her February launch criticizing Gillen's ICE funding vote—though Darling's prior 2024 state Senate primary loss tempers expectations. No public polls exist; State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement could influence turnout in this closed primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Laura Gillen" at 74%, followed by "Nicholas Sciretta" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 1, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Laura Gillen" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nicholas Sciretta" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.