Amid escalating military exchanges in the 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on over 10,000 Iranian targets since late February, trader sentiment hinges on fragile diplomatic off-ramps. Israel hit two nuclear facilities and power plants on March 27, prompting Iran's vow of retaliation against US and Israeli assets, while releasing images of damage from recent US-Israeli attacks. President Trump delayed strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6 to enable talks, following a rejected 15-point US ceasefire proposal and Iran's counter-demands relayed via mediators like Pakistan. Indirect negotiations continue amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, but persistent airstrikes and mutual rejections underscore high barriers to de-escalation before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$57,111,691 Vol.
March 31
2%
April 7
11%
April 15
23%
April 30
39%
May 31
54%
June 30
62%
December 31
76%
$57,111,691 Vol.
March 31
$36,063,686 Vol.
2%
April 7
$970,100 Vol.
11%
April 15
$5,529,139 Vol.
23%
April 30
$6,183,573 Vol.
39%
May 31
$2,169,152 Vol.
54%
June 30
$2,241,625 Vol.
62%
December 31
$463,434 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid escalating military exchanges in the 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on over 10,000 Iranian targets since late February, trader sentiment hinges on fragile diplomatic off-ramps. Israel hit two nuclear facilities and power plants on March 27, prompting Iran's vow of retaliation against US and Israeli assets, while releasing images of damage from recent US-Israeli attacks. President Trump delayed strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6 to enable talks, following a rejected 15-point US ceasefire proposal and Iran's counter-demands relayed via mediators like Pakistan. Indirect negotiations continue amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, but persistent airstrikes and mutual rejections underscore high barriers to de-escalation before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$57,111,691Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid escalating military exchanges in the 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on over 10,000 Iranian targets since late February, trader sentiment hinges on fragile diplomatic off-ramps. Israel hit two nuclear facilities and power plants on March 27, prompting Iran's vow of retaliation against US and Israeli assets, while releasing images of damage from recent US-Israeli attacks. President Trump delayed strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6 to enable talks, following a rejected 15-point US ceasefire proposal and Iran's counter-demands relayed via mediators like Pakistan. Indirect negotiations continue amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, but persistent airstrikes and mutual rejections underscore high barriers to de-escalation before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$57,111,691Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating military exchanges in the 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on over 10,000 Iranian targets since late February, trader sentiment hinges on fragile diplomatic off-ramps. Israel hit two nuclear facilities and power plants on March 27, prompting Iran's vow of retaliation against US and Israeli assets, while releasing images of damage from recent US-Israeli attacks. President Trump delayed strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6 to enable talks, following a rejected 15-point US ceasefire proposal and Iran's counter-demands relayed via mediators like Pakistan. Indirect negotiations continue amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, but persistent airstrikes and mutual rejections underscore high barriers to de-escalation before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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