US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets have intensified since February 28, achieving air superiority and destroying about one-third of Iran's missile arsenal, yet no US ground forces have entered Iranian territory as of March 28. Recent Pentagon deployments of the 82nd Airborne Division, Marines, and up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East signal preparation for potential operations, including against Kharg Island oil facilities, amid Iran's retaliatory missile strikes wounding over a dozen US personnel at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base yesterday. Diplomatic pressures and logistical challenges for a full invasion sustain trader caution on near-term entry, with force concentrations and Iranian warnings of escalation as key watchpoints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$40,099,896 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
March 31
9%
April 30
55%
December 31
67%
$40,099,896 Vol.
March 31
$27,533,981 Vol.
9%
April 30
$5,571,436 Vol.
55%
December 31
$4,922,748 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets have intensified since February 28, achieving air superiority and destroying about one-third of Iran's missile arsenal, yet no US ground forces have entered Iranian territory as of March 28. Recent Pentagon deployments of the 82nd Airborne Division, Marines, and up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East signal preparation for potential operations, including against Kharg Island oil facilities, amid Iran's retaliatory missile strikes wounding over a dozen US personnel at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base yesterday. Diplomatic pressures and logistical challenges for a full invasion sustain trader caution on near-term entry, with force concentrations and Iranian warnings of escalation as key watchpoints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$40,099,896Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets have intensified since February 28, achieving air superiority and destroying about one-third of Iran's missile arsenal, yet no US ground forces have entered Iranian territory as of March 28. Recent Pentagon deployments of the 82nd Airborne Division, Marines, and up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East signal preparation for potential operations, including against Kharg Island oil facilities, amid Iran's retaliatory missile strikes wounding over a dozen US personnel at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base yesterday. Diplomatic pressures and logistical challenges for a full invasion sustain trader caution on near-term entry, with force concentrations and Iranian warnings of escalation as key watchpoints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Volume
$40,099,896Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets have intensified since February 28, achieving air superiority and destroying about one-third of Iran's missile arsenal, yet no US ground forces have entered Iranian territory as of March 28. Recent Pentagon deployments of the 82nd Airborne Division, Marines, and up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East signal preparation for potential operations, including against Kharg Island oil facilities, amid Iran's retaliatory missile strikes wounding over a dozen US personnel at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base yesterday. Diplomatic pressures and logistical challenges for a full invasion sustain trader caution on near-term entry, with force concentrations and Iranian warnings of escalation as key watchpoints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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