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Elections·Primaries

TX-38 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

TX-38 Republican Primary Winner

Jon Bonck 94.6%

Shelly deZevallos 2.1%

Michael Pratt <1%

Jeff Yuna <1%

Polymarket

$16,440 Vol.

Jon Bonck 94.6%

Shelly deZevallos 2.1%

Michael Pratt <1%

Jeff Yuna <1%

Polymarket

$16,440 Vol.

Jon Bonck

$16,440 Vol.

95%

Shelly deZevallos

$0 Vol.

2%

Michael Pratt

$0 Vol.

1%

Jeff Yuna

$0 Vol.

<1%

Avery Ayers

$0 Vol.

<1%

Jennifer Sundt

$0 Vol.

<1%

Craig Goralski

$0 Vol.

<1%

Barrett McNabb

$0 Vol.

<1%

Larry Rubin

$0 Vol.

<1%

Carmen Montiel

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the trader-favored Republican primary winner for Texas' 38th Congressional District stems from his dominant March 3 primary performance, securing 47% of the vote against Shelly deZevallos's 19% among 10 candidates, advancing both to the May 26 runoff for the open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid. Bonck's edge reflects former President Trump's endorsement, top fundraising as a mortgage loan officer and Baptist deacon, and historical patterns where first-round leaders prevail in low-turnout Texas GOP runoffs over 80% of the time. Challenges could arise from a late scandal, deZevallos fundraising surge, or unexpected voter mobilization in the Houston-area stronghold.

Jon Bonck's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the trader-favored Republican primary winner for Texas' 38th Congressional District stems from his dominant March 3 primary performance, securing 47% of the vote against Shelly deZevallos's 19% among 10 candidates, advancing both to the May 26 runoff for the open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid. Bonck's edge reflects former President Trump's endorsement, top fundraising as a mortgage loan officer and Baptist deacon, and historical patterns where first-round leaders prevail in low-turnout Texas GOP runoffs over 80% of the time. Challenges could arise from a late scandal, deZevallos fundraising surge, or unexpected voter mobilization in the Houston-area stronghold.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the trader-favored Republican primary winner for Texas' 38th Congressional District stems from his dominant March 3 primary performance, securing 47% of the vote against Shelly deZevallos's 19% among 10 candidates, advancing both to the May 26 runoff for the open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid. Bonck's edge reflects former President Trump's endorsement, top fundraising as a mortgage loan officer and Baptist deacon, and historical patterns where first-round leaders prevail in low-turnout Texas GOP runoffs over 80% of the time. Challenges could arise from a late scandal, deZevallos fundraising surge, or unexpected voter mobilization in the Houston-area stronghold.

Jon Bonck's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the trader-favored Republican primary winner for Texas' 38th Congressional District stems from his dominant March 3 primary performance, securing 47% of the vote against Shelly deZevallos's 19% among 10 candidates, advancing both to the May 26 runoff for the open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid. Bonck's edge reflects former President Trump's endorsement, top fundraising as a mortgage loan officer and Baptist deacon, and historical patterns where first-round leaders prevail in low-turnout Texas GOP runoffs over 80% of the time. Challenges could arise from a late scandal, deZevallos fundraising surge, or unexpected voter mobilization in the Houston-area stronghold.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jon Bonck" at 95%, followed by "Shelly deZevallos" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $16.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jon Bonck" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Shelly deZevallos" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.