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Politics·Primaries

TX-30 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

TX-30 Republican Primary Winner

Everett Jackson 82.0%

Sholdon Daniels 13%

Gregor Heise 3.7%

Nils Walker 2.5%

Polymarket

$22,338 Vol.

Everett Jackson 82.0%

Sholdon Daniels 13%

Gregor Heise 3.7%

Nils Walker 2.5%

Polymarket

$22,338 Vol.

Everett Jackson

$2,269 Vol.

82%

Sholdon Daniels

$8,845 Vol.

13%

Gregor Heise

$10,111 Vol.

4%

Nils Walker

$1,113 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Everett Jackson's commanding 38% in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas' 30th Congressional District propelled him to an 82.8% implied probability as the trader-favored nominee, outpacing Sholdon Daniels' 24.3% amid low-turnout voting across Dallas and Tarrant counties. No candidate reached a majority among the four contenders, triggering a May 26 runoff between Jackson and Daniels, with eliminated candidates Gregorio Heise (19.4%) and Nils Walker (18.2%) retaining minor market support at 4.2% and 2.0%. Despite Daniels' superior pre-primary fundraising ($354K vs. Jackson's $15K), Jackson's grassroots momentum and first-round edge reflect trader consensus on his path to victory in the deeply Democratic (D+25) open-seat race. Recent campaign attacks from Daniels underscore intensifying runoff dynamics ahead of early voting in May.

Everett Jackson's commanding 38% in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas' 30th Congressional District propelled him to an 82.8% implied probability as the trader-favored nominee, outpacing Sholdon Daniels' 24.3% amid low-turnout voting across Dallas and Tarrant counties. No candidate reached a majority among the four contenders, triggering a May 26 runoff between Jackson and Daniels, with eliminated candidates Gregorio Heise (19.4%) and Nils Walker (18.2%) retaining minor market support at 4.2% and 2.0%. Despite Daniels' superior pre-primary fundraising ($354K vs. Jackson's $15K), Jackson's grassroots momentum and first-round edge reflect trader consensus on his path to victory in the deeply Democratic (D+25) open-seat race. Recent campaign attacks from Daniels underscore intensifying runoff dynamics ahead of early voting in May.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Everett Jackson's commanding 38% in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas' 30th Congressional District propelled him to an 82.8% implied probability as the trader-favored nominee, outpacing Sholdon Daniels' 24.3% amid low-turnout voting across Dallas and Tarrant counties. No candidate reached a majority among the four contenders, triggering a May 26 runoff between Jackson and Daniels, with eliminated candidates Gregorio Heise (19.4%) and Nils Walker (18.2%) retaining minor market support at 4.2% and 2.0%. Despite Daniels' superior pre-primary fundraising ($354K vs. Jackson's $15K), Jackson's grassroots momentum and first-round edge reflect trader consensus on his path to victory in the deeply Democratic (D+25) open-seat race. Recent campaign attacks from Daniels underscore intensifying runoff dynamics ahead of early voting in May.

Everett Jackson's commanding 38% in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas' 30th Congressional District propelled him to an 82.8% implied probability as the trader-favored nominee, outpacing Sholdon Daniels' 24.3% amid low-turnout voting across Dallas and Tarrant counties. No candidate reached a majority among the four contenders, triggering a May 26 runoff between Jackson and Daniels, with eliminated candidates Gregorio Heise (19.4%) and Nils Walker (18.2%) retaining minor market support at 4.2% and 2.0%. Despite Daniels' superior pre-primary fundraising ($354K vs. Jackson's $15K), Jackson's grassroots momentum and first-round edge reflect trader consensus on his path to victory in the deeply Democratic (D+25) open-seat race. Recent campaign attacks from Daniels underscore intensifying runoff dynamics ahead of early voting in May.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-30 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Everett Jackson" at 82%, followed by "Sholdon Daniels" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-30 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $22.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-30 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-30 Republican Primary Winner" is "Everett Jackson" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sholdon Daniels" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-30 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.