Incumbent Republican Andy Ogles commands 78% trader consensus to retain Tennessee's 5th Congressional District seat, driven by the district's strong Republican lean following 2022 redistricting and his proven incumbency edge in prior cycles. Recent fundraising reports show Ogles' campaign with under $100,000 cash on hand as of mid-April 2026, lagging Democratic primary frontrunner Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, whom national Democrats view as a viable flip candidate amid a nearby special election signaling turnout potential. An ongoing FBI investigation into Ogles adds uncertainty, alongside a potential GOP primary challenge from Charlie Hatcher, with Tennessee's August 6 primaries looming as the next market catalyst before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-05 House Election Winner
TN-05 House Election Winner
$11,279 Vol.
$11,279 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
78%
Democratic Party
23%
$11,279 Vol.
$11,279 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,598 Vol.
78%
Democratic Party
$6,682 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andy Ogles commands 78% trader consensus to retain Tennessee's 5th Congressional District seat, driven by the district's strong Republican lean following 2022 redistricting and his proven incumbency edge in prior cycles. Recent fundraising reports show Ogles' campaign with under $100,000 cash on hand as of mid-April 2026, lagging Democratic primary frontrunner Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, whom national Democrats view as a viable flip candidate amid a nearby special election signaling turnout potential. An ongoing FBI investigation into Ogles adds uncertainty, alongside a potential GOP primary challenge from Charlie Hatcher, with Tennessee's August 6 primaries looming as the next market catalyst before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$11,279End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andy Ogles commands 78% trader consensus to retain Tennessee's 5th Congressional District seat, driven by the district's strong Republican lean following 2022 redistricting and his proven incumbency edge in prior cycles. Recent fundraising reports show Ogles' campaign with under $100,000 cash on hand as of mid-April 2026, lagging Democratic primary frontrunner Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, whom national Democrats view as a viable flip candidate amid a nearby special election signaling turnout potential. An ongoing FBI investigation into Ogles adds uncertainty, alongside a potential GOP primary challenge from Charlie Hatcher, with Tennessee's August 6 primaries looming as the next market catalyst before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,279End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Andy Ogles commands 78% trader consensus to retain Tennessee's 5th Congressional District seat, driven by the district's strong Republican lean following 2022 redistricting and his proven incumbency edge in prior cycles. Recent fundraising reports show Ogles' campaign with under $100,000 cash on hand as of mid-April 2026, lagging Democratic primary frontrunner Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, whom national Democrats view as a viable flip candidate amid a nearby special election signaling turnout potential. An ongoing FBI investigation into Ogles adds uncertainty, alongside a potential GOP primary challenge from Charlie Hatcher, with Tennessee's August 6 primaries looming as the next market catalyst before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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