Somaliland's National Electoral Commission (NEC) announcement on February 1, 2026, of a 10-month postponement for parliamentary and local council elections—citing security threats, drought impacts, and logistical hurdles—has solidified trader consensus at 66% for no House of Representatives vote before 2027, reflecting the region's history of delays since the last election in 2005. President Abdirahman Irro of Waddani (12%), fresh off his 2024 presidential victory, leads potential winners due to incumbency momentum and party strength, ahead of former ruling party Kulmiye (6.8%) and UCID (4.3%). Recent NEC training on dispute resolution signals preparations amid uncertainties, with clan dynamics and fiscal strains as key risk factors for further postponements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSomaliland Parliamentary Election Winner
Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner
No election before 2027 67%
Waddani 10%
Kulmiye 6.8%
Justice and Welfare (UCID) 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
No election before 2027
67%
Waddani
10%
Kulmiye
7%
Justice and Welfare (UCID)
4%
No election before 2027 67%
Waddani 10%
Kulmiye 6.8%
Justice and Welfare (UCID) 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
No election before 2027
$3,058 Vol.
67%
Waddani
$1,516 Vol.
10%
Kulmiye
$1,753 Vol.
7%
Justice and Welfare (UCID)
$2,986 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Somaliland's National Electoral Commission (NEC) announcement on February 1, 2026, of a 10-month postponement for parliamentary and local council elections—citing security threats, drought impacts, and logistical hurdles—has solidified trader consensus at 66% for no House of Representatives vote before 2027, reflecting the region's history of delays since the last election in 2005. President Abdirahman Irro of Waddani (12%), fresh off his 2024 presidential victory, leads potential winners due to incumbency momentum and party strength, ahead of former ruling party Kulmiye (6.8%) and UCID (4.3%). Recent NEC training on dispute resolution signals preparations amid uncertainties, with clan dynamics and fiscal strains as key risk factors for further postponements.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
Volume
$9,313End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Somaliland's National Electoral Commission (NEC) announcement on February 1, 2026, of a 10-month postponement for parliamentary and local council elections—citing security threats, drought impacts, and logistical hurdles—has solidified trader consensus at 66% for no House of Representatives vote before 2027, reflecting the region's history of delays since the last election in 2005. President Abdirahman Irro of Waddani (12%), fresh off his 2024 presidential victory, leads potential winners due to incumbency momentum and party strength, ahead of former ruling party Kulmiye (6.8%) and UCID (4.3%). Recent NEC training on dispute resolution signals preparations amid uncertainties, with clan dynamics and fiscal strains as key risk factors for further postponements.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Volume
$9,313End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Somaliland's National Electoral Commission (NEC) announcement on February 1, 2026, of a 10-month postponement for parliamentary and local council elections—citing security threats, drought impacts, and logistical hurdles—has solidified trader consensus at 66% for no House of Representatives vote before 2027, reflecting the region's history of delays since the last election in 2005. President Abdirahman Irro of Waddani (12%), fresh off his 2024 presidential victory, leads potential winners due to incumbency momentum and party strength, ahead of former ruling party Kulmiye (6.8%) and UCID (4.3%). Recent NEC training on dispute resolution signals preparations amid uncertainties, with clan dynamics and fiscal strains as key risk factors for further postponements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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