Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, with 59.5% implied probability, reflecting seat projections from aggregators like 338Canada showing PQ on pace for a 63-seat mean (majority threshold: 63) despite a tight popular vote race. This stems from Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation, which cratered Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) support to single digits, enabling PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to consolidate nationalist and rural votes under first-member plurality rules. Recent Léger (March 1) and Pallas polls indicate a statistical tie at 30-31% between PQ and Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) under new leader Charles Milliard, who has narrowed the gap but trails in projected seats (45 mean); CAQ's March 18 sober budget and ongoing leadership race offer faint recovery hopes ahead of the fixed October 5 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 60%
PLQ 30%
CAQ 11%
PCQ <1%
$370,295 Vol.
$370,295 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
60%
PLQ
30%
CAQ
11%
PCQ
1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 60%
PLQ 30%
CAQ 11%
PCQ <1%
$370,295 Vol.
$370,295 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
$36,166 Vol.
60%
PLQ
$35,494 Vol.
30%
CAQ
$35,203 Vol.
11%
PCQ
$116,014 Vol.
1%
QS
$45,178 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$102,240 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, with 59.5% implied probability, reflecting seat projections from aggregators like 338Canada showing PQ on pace for a 63-seat mean (majority threshold: 63) despite a tight popular vote race. This stems from Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation, which cratered Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) support to single digits, enabling PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to consolidate nationalist and rural votes under first-member plurality rules. Recent Léger (March 1) and Pallas polls indicate a statistical tie at 30-31% between PQ and Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) under new leader Charles Milliard, who has narrowed the gap but trails in projected seats (45 mean); CAQ's March 18 sober budget and ongoing leadership race offer faint recovery hopes ahead of the fixed October 5 election.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$370,295End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, with 59.5% implied probability, reflecting seat projections from aggregators like 338Canada showing PQ on pace for a 63-seat mean (majority threshold: 63) despite a tight popular vote race. This stems from Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation, which cratered Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) support to single digits, enabling PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to consolidate nationalist and rural votes under first-member plurality rules. Recent Léger (March 1) and Pallas polls indicate a statistical tie at 30-31% between PQ and Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) under new leader Charles Milliard, who has narrowed the gap but trails in projected seats (45 mean); CAQ's March 18 sober budget and ongoing leadership race offer faint recovery hopes ahead of the fixed October 5 election.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$370,295End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, with 59.5% implied probability, reflecting seat projections from aggregators like 338Canada showing PQ on pace for a 63-seat mean (majority threshold: 63) despite a tight popular vote race. This stems from Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation, which cratered Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) support to single digits, enabling PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to consolidate nationalist and rural votes under first-member plurality rules. Recent Léger (March 1) and Pallas polls indicate a statistical tie at 30-31% between PQ and Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) under new leader Charles Milliard, who has narrowed the gap but trails in projected seats (45 mean); CAQ's March 18 sober budget and ongoing leadership race offer faint recovery hopes ahead of the fixed October 5 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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