Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.4%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.3%

Polymarket

$483,806,680 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.4%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.3%

Polymarket

$483,806,680 Vol.

Market icon

JD Vance

$9,603,458 Vol.

18%

Market icon

Gavin Newsom

$8,071,949 Vol.

16%

Market icon

Marco Rubio

$5,470,065 Vol.

10%

Market icon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,543,844 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Jon Ossoff

$3,104,049 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Kamala Harris

$6,646,710 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Tucker Carlson

$9,559,645 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Josh Shapiro

$5,360,745 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Donald Trump

$6,679,402 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Pete Buttigieg

$3,498,045 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Ron DeSantis

$5,963,504 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Andy Beshear

$16,004,450 Vol.

2%

Market icon

JB Pritzker

$10,454,625 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,752,294 Vol.

2%

Market icon

James Talarico

$3,848,165 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Michelle Obama

$13,418,376 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elon Musk

$22,201,976 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Gretchen Whitmer

$7,868,395 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ivanka Trump

$4,182,750 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jamie Dimon

$7,371,202 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Greg Abbott

$31,521,987 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Wes Moore

$5,789,367 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$8,614,246 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Nikki Haley

$21,181,792 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ro Khanna

$5,976,622 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Thomas Massie

$3,478,339 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tim Walz

$38,745,754 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Glenn Youngkin

$19,994,296 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Stephen Smith

$28,642,585 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$27,421,615 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Zohran Mamdani

$16,678,218 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Eric Trump

$5,550,125 Vol.

1%

Market icon

LeBron James

$43,426,240 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Pete Hegseth

$2,259,726 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,368,790 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kim Kardashian

$29,555,143 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.8%, buoyed by his recent CPAC straw poll dominance at 53% and appearances at a secretive conservative donor summit, signaling strong GOP base support as Trump's heir apparent. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.4%, reflecting Democratic positioning after his post-2026 midterm considerations and perceived frontrunner status amid party fragmentation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 10.3% share has surged on Iran crisis visibility, fostering Vance-Rubio jockeying within the administration. This tight field underscores early speculation ahead of 2026 midterms, primaries, and Electoral College battlegrounds, where economic trends, foreign policy escalations, or scandals could widen gaps.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$483,806,680
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.8%, buoyed by his recent CPAC straw poll dominance at 53% and appearances at a secretive conservative donor summit, signaling strong GOP base support as Trump's heir apparent. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.4%, reflecting Democratic positioning after his post-2026 midterm considerations and perceived frontrunner status amid party fragmentation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 10.3% share has surged on Iran crisis visibility, fostering Vance-Rubio jockeying within the administration. This tight field underscores early speculation ahead of 2026 midterms, primaries, and Electoral College battlegrounds, where economic trends, foreign policy escalations, or scandals could widen gaps.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$483,806,680
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Related

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $483.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.