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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.1%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$464,679,317 Vol.

JD Vance 18.1%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$464,679,317 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,045,193 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,618,736 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,227,973 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,314,324 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,874,864 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,406,810 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,006,388 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,286,241 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,357,220 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,431,447 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$8,942,066 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,729,630 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,532,596 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,690,884 Vol.

1%

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Andy Beshear

$14,868,972 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,932,188 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,000,283 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,144,723 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,596,743 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,405,436 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,238,335 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,483,816 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,284,085 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,690,097 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,382,684 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,223,047 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,029,681 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,238,801 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,573,239 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$27,981,706 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,622,718 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$15,944,647 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,673,953 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,445,827 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,414,208 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,048,588 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18.1% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.2%, reflecting high uncertainty two years out. Vance's odds have plummeted in recent weeks amid concerns that prolonged Middle East conflicts, especially involving Iran, could tarnish the GOP nominee's appeal, with sources close to him citing risks from extended engagements. Rubio's profile has risen through his visible foreign policy role, drawing GOP donor interest, while Newsom solidifies Democratic frontrunner status post-2024. The 2026 midterms loom as a key catalyst to separate contenders via primaries and incumbency dynamics.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18.1% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.2%, reflecting high uncertainty two years out. Vance's odds have plummeted in recent weeks amid concerns that prolonged Middle East conflicts, especially involving Iran, could tarnish the GOP nominee's appeal, with sources close to him citing risks from extended engagements. Rubio's profile has risen through his visible foreign policy role, drawing GOP donor interest, while Newsom solidifies Democratic frontrunner status post-2024. The 2026 midterms loom as a key catalyst to separate contenders via primaries and incumbency dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18.1% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.2%, reflecting high uncertainty two years out. Vance's odds have plummeted in recent weeks amid concerns that prolonged Middle East conflicts, especially involving Iran, could tarnish the GOP nominee's appeal, with sources close to him citing risks from extended engagements. Rubio's profile has risen through his visible foreign policy role, drawing GOP donor interest, while Newsom solidifies Democratic frontrunner status post-2024. The 2026 midterms loom as a key catalyst to separate contenders via primaries and incumbency dynamics.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18.1% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.2%, reflecting high uncertainty two years out. Vance's odds have plummeted in recent weeks amid concerns that prolonged Middle East conflicts, especially involving Iran, could tarnish the GOP nominee's appeal, with sources close to him citing risks from extended engagements. Rubio's profile has risen through his visible foreign policy role, drawing GOP donor interest, while Newsom solidifies Democratic frontrunner status post-2024. The 2026 midterms loom as a key catalyst to separate contenders via primaries and incumbency dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $464.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.