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Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Rafael López Aliaga 33%

Keiko Fujimori 21%

Carlos Álvarez 15.2%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 9.0%

Polymarket

$4,883,843 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga 33%

Keiko Fujimori 21%

Carlos Álvarez 15.2%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 9.0%

Polymarket

$4,883,843 Vol.

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Rafael López Aliaga

$631,668 Vol.

33%

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Keiko Fujimori

$259,512 Vol.

21%

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Carlos Álvarez

$154,986 Vol.

15%

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Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$349,227 Vol.

9%

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Alfonso López Chau

$226,743 Vol.

9%

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Jorge Nieto

$694,643 Vol.

6%

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Ricardo Belmont

$219,661 Vol.

2%

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Marisol Pérez Tello

$212,278 Vol.

1%

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Carlos Espá

$156,454 Vol.

1%

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Wolfgang Grozo

$384,441 Vol.

1%

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Mesías Guevara

$122,825 Vol.

1%

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Yonhy Lescano

$192,020 Vol.

1%

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George Forsyth

$140,380 Vol.

<1%

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César Acuña

$115,219 Vol.

<1%

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Roberto Chiabra

$76,331 Vol.

<1%

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Mario Vizcarra

$138,954 Vol.

<1%

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José Williams

$68,408 Vol.

<1%

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Fiorella Molinelli

$97,146 Vol.

<1%

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Fernando Olivera

$109,685 Vol.

<1%

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Vladimir Cerrón

$134,357 Vol.

<1%

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José Luna

$107,330 Vol.

<1%

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Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$130,797 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Valderrama

$163,033 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) Ten days before Peru's April 12 first-round presidential vote—requiring a runoff on June 7 absent a 50% majority—trader consensus favors Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular at 33% implied probability to claim ultimate victory, buoyed by late-March polls showing him leading or tied amid voter backlash against crime surges and a decade of eight presidents. Recent Ipsos and Datum post-debate surveys reflect a tight race with Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) at 11-13%, Carlos Álvarez (País para Todos) rising to third on anti-establishment appeal, and Alfonso López Chau trailing. López Aliaga differentiates via security-focused messaging and southern backing; Fujimori leverages northern strongholds and incumbency-like experience; Álvarez gains as comedic outsider. With 15-25% undecideds in a 34-candidate field, consolidation depends on final impressions, regional turnout, and right-wing vote unity to avert fragmentation favoring a surprise contender.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$4,883,843
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) Ten days before Peru's April 12 first-round presidential vote—requiring a runoff on June 7 absent a 50% majority—trader consensus favors Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular at 33% implied probability to claim ultimate victory, buoyed by late-March polls showing him leading or tied amid voter backlash against crime surges and a decade of eight presidents. Recent Ipsos and Datum post-debate surveys reflect a tight race with Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) at 11-13%, Carlos Álvarez (País para Todos) rising to third on anti-establishment appeal, and Alfonso López Chau trailing. López Aliaga differentiates via security-focused messaging and southern backing; Fujimori leverages northern strongholds and incumbency-like experience; Álvarez gains as comedic outsider. With 15-25% undecideds in a 34-candidate field, consolidation depends on final impressions, regional turnout, and right-wing vote unity to avert fragmentation favoring a surprise contender.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$4,883,843
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Related

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Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

46%
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Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

17%
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Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

33%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 33%, followed by "Keiko Fujimori" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election Winner" has generated $4.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election Winner" is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keiko Fujimori" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.