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Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Brad Lander 81%

Dan Goldman 16%

Cameron Kasky 2.3%

Alexa Avilés 1.9%

Polymarket
NEW

Brad Lander 81%

Dan Goldman 16%

Cameron Kasky 2.3%

Alexa Avilés 1.9%

Polymarket
NEW

Brad Lander

$1,858 Vol.

81%

Dan Goldman

$1,113 Vol.

16%

Cameron Kasky

$619 Vol.

2%

Alexa Avilés

$834 Vol.

2%

Yuh-Line Niou

$557 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander holds a commanding 80.5% implied probability in the NY-10 Democratic primary trader consensus, fueled by progressive consolidation after Yuh-Line Niou cleared the field in December and recent high-profile endorsements, including 32BJ SEIU's backing on April 2 amid contract talks with Manhattan buildings. Lander's March 23 challenge to incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman for a "People's Pledge" to ban outside PAC spending—highlighting Goldman's $370,000 from AIPAC this cycle—has amplified attacks on dark money, resonating in this deep-blue Manhattan-Brooklyn district where the June 23 primary will decide the nominee. A September 2025 poll showed Lander ahead by 19 points among likely voters, sustaining his frontrunner status despite Goldman's 15.5% share and fundraising edge.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,980
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander holds a commanding 80.5% implied probability in the NY-10 Democratic primary trader consensus, fueled by progressive consolidation after Yuh-Line Niou cleared the field in December and recent high-profile endorsements, including 32BJ SEIU's backing on April 2 amid contract talks with Manhattan buildings. Lander's March 23 challenge to incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman for a "People's Pledge" to ban outside PAC spending—highlighting Goldman's $370,000 from AIPAC this cycle—has amplified attacks on dark money, resonating in this deep-blue Manhattan-Brooklyn district where the June 23 primary will decide the nominee. A September 2025 poll showed Lander ahead by 19 points among likely voters, sustaining his frontrunner status despite Goldman's 15.5% share and fundraising edge.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,980
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Brad Lander" at 81%, followed by "Dan Goldman" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Brad Lander" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Goldman" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.