Skip to main content
icon for NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Brad Lander 97.1%

Dan Goldman 2.5%

Cameron Kasky <1%

Alexa Avilés <1%

Polymarket

$18,843 Vol.

Brad Lander 97.1%

Dan Goldman 2.5%

Cameron Kasky <1%

Alexa Avilés <1%

Polymarket

$18,843 Vol.

Brad Lander

$6,919 Vol.

97%

Dan Goldman

$5,508 Vol.

2%

Cameron Kasky

$2,236 Vol.

<1%

Alexa Avilés

$2,223 Vol.

<1%

Yuh-Line Niou

$1,958 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Brad Lander holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the June 23 Democratic primary in New York’s 10th Congressional District, driven by a September 2025 poll showing him ahead by 19 points among likely primary voters, strong progressive endorsements including from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and positioning on issues such as housing, Israel policy, and Trump-era immigration enforcement. As the former city comptroller challenging incumbent Dan Goldman, Lander has benefited from recent debates and forums that sharpened contrasts without eroding his edge. With the primary just days away, Goldman’s path to an upset would require major late shifts in turnout among moderate or establishment voters, though historical primary dynamics and the current polling gap make such movement unlikely before ballots close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,843
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Brad Lander holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the June 23 Democratic primary in New York’s 10th Congressional District, driven by a September 2025 poll showing him ahead by 19 points among likely primary voters, strong progressive endorsements including from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and positioning on issues such as housing, Israel policy, and Trump-era immigration enforcement. As the former city comptroller challenging incumbent Dan Goldman, Lander has benefited from recent debates and forums that sharpened contrasts without eroding his edge. With the primary just days away, Goldman’s path to an upset would require major late shifts in turnout among moderate or establishment voters, though historical primary dynamics and the current polling gap make such movement unlikely before ballots close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,843
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?

Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?

88%
icon for Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

51%
icon for Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

64%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Brad Lander" at 97%, followed by "Dan Goldman" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $18.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Brad Lander" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Goldman" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.