Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka commands overwhelming trader consensus at 88% implied probability for re-election in Newark's nonpartisan May 12 municipal election, driven by his unchallenged incumbency advantage and a field of nine minor challengers lacking visibility or resources. In his April 1 State of the City address at NJPAC—delivered less than six weeks before voting—Baraka highlighted 12 years of progress on public safety, education gains in Newark Public Schools, economic development, housing, and water infrastructure, while unveiling a "worst landlords" list to underscore enforcement efforts. No recent polls or endorsements have boosted rivals like Nasheedah Singleton or Douglas Davis, with February analyses deeming opponents non-credible, solidifying Baraka's path absent late surprises like scandals or turnout shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNewark Mayoral Election
Newark Mayoral Election
Ras Baraka 88%
Douglas Davis 4.1%
Nasheedah Singleton 3.8%
Debra Salters 3.6%
$10,646 Vol.
$10,646 Vol.
Ras Baraka
88%
Douglas Davis
4%
Nasheedah Singleton
4%
Debra Salters
4%
Sheila Montague
2%
Jhamar Youngblood
2%
Noble Milton
2%
Tanisha Garner
1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
Ras Baraka 88%
Douglas Davis 4.1%
Nasheedah Singleton 3.8%
Debra Salters 3.6%
$10,646 Vol.
$10,646 Vol.
Ras Baraka
88%
Douglas Davis
4%
Nasheedah Singleton
4%
Debra Salters
4%
Sheila Montague
2%
Jhamar Youngblood
2%
Noble Milton
2%
Tanisha Garner
1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Market Opened: Mar 10, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka commands overwhelming trader consensus at 88% implied probability for re-election in Newark's nonpartisan May 12 municipal election, driven by his unchallenged incumbency advantage and a field of nine minor challengers lacking visibility or resources. In his April 1 State of the City address at NJPAC—delivered less than six weeks before voting—Baraka highlighted 12 years of progress on public safety, education gains in Newark Public Schools, economic development, housing, and water infrastructure, while unveiling a "worst landlords" list to underscore enforcement efforts. No recent polls or endorsements have boosted rivals like Nasheedah Singleton or Douglas Davis, with February analyses deeming opponents non-credible, solidifying Baraka's path absent late surprises like scandals or turnout shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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