Deb Haaland leads Polymarket trader consensus at 73% implied probability for the New Mexico Democratic gubernatorial primary on June 2, mirroring her dominant 73-76% share of delegate votes at the party's March 7 pre-primary convention in Mescalero, where Sam Bregman garnered 24-26%. This early party endorsement has solidified Haaland's frontrunner status as former U.S. Interior Secretary and New Mexico Congresswoman, further boosted by recent backing from Stacey Abrams on April 1 and House Speaker Javier Martínez, alongside her new healthcare plan emphasizing a public option. Bregman, Bernalillo County District Attorney, holds second at 24.5% with pitches on crime drops and brackish water initiatives, while ex-Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima's February switch to independent candidacy has rendered him irrelevant at 0.1% in the Democratic field. No major post-convention polls have emerged, leaving the race path-to-victory tied to turnout among key Democratic voting blocs.