Trader consensus heavily favors U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas at 88% implied probability to win New Hampshire's September 8 Democratic Senate primary, driven by his incumbency advantage in the state's 1st congressional district, strong fundraising, and endorsements from figures like Gov. Andy Beshear and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who campaigned with him in February. Recent late-March Emerson and St. Anselm polls showing Pappas leading or tied with GOP frontrunner John Sununu in general election hypotheticals have reinforced his frontrunner status in the open-seat contest following Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement announcement. Medical scientist Karishma Manzur holds 4% as a progressive challenger criticizing Pappas on foreign policy and AIPAC ties, but lacks comparable polling or resources; no other major contenders have gained traction in the past 30 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$11,857 Vol.
$11,857 Vol.
Chris Pappas
89%
Karishma Manzur
5%
$11,857 Vol.
$11,857 Vol.
Chris Pappas
89%
Karishma Manzur
5%
If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas at 88% implied probability to win New Hampshire's September 8 Democratic Senate primary, driven by his incumbency advantage in the state's 1st congressional district, strong fundraising, and endorsements from figures like Gov. Andy Beshear and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who campaigned with him in February. Recent late-March Emerson and St. Anselm polls showing Pappas leading or tied with GOP frontrunner John Sununu in general election hypotheticals have reinforced his frontrunner status in the open-seat contest following Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement announcement. Medical scientist Karishma Manzur holds 4% as a progressive challenger criticizing Pappas on foreign policy and AIPAC ties, but lacks comparable polling or resources; no other major contenders have gained traction in the past 30 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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