Market icon
Elections·Primaries

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

John Cavanaugh 85%

Denise Powell 11%

Mark Johnston 2.8%

Evangelos Argyrakis 2.6%

Polymarket
NEW

John Cavanaugh 85%

Denise Powell 11%

Mark Johnston 2.8%

Evangelos Argyrakis 2.6%

Polymarket
NEW

John Cavanaugh

$3,186 Vol.

85%

Denise Powell

$244 Vol.

11%

Mark Johnston

$1,435 Vol.

3%

Evangelos Argyrakis

$300 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. John Cavanaugh leads trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win Nebraska's NE-02 Democratic primary on May 12, driven by consistent polling dominance and recent fundraising gains in a crowded seven-candidate field that fragments opposition support. A January GBAO survey of 600 likely primary voters showed Cavanaugh at 43%, a 28-point edge over his nearest rival, with his share exceeding all others combined and fewer than one in four undecided. Cavanaugh overtook Denise Powell's early cash-on-hand lead with stronger Q4 2025 receipts, bolstering his path despite Powell's 10.5% odds from her activist profile and endorsements like EMILY's List. Minor candidates like Mark Johnston (withdrawn last year) and Evangelos Argyrakis trail at under 3% due to negligible name recognition and resources, with odds firming amid primary proximity and no major disruptions.

State Sen. John Cavanaugh leads trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win Nebraska's NE-02 Democratic primary on May 12, driven by consistent polling dominance and recent fundraising gains in a crowded seven-candidate field that fragments opposition support. A January GBAO survey of 600 likely primary voters showed Cavanaugh at 43%, a 28-point edge over his nearest rival, with his share exceeding all others combined and fewer than one in four undecided. Cavanaugh overtook Denise Powell's early cash-on-hand lead with stronger Q4 2025 receipts, bolstering his path despite Powell's 10.5% odds from her activist profile and endorsements like EMILY's List. Minor candidates like Mark Johnston (withdrawn last year) and Evangelos Argyrakis trail at under 3% due to negligible name recognition and resources, with odds firming amid primary proximity and no major disruptions.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. John Cavanaugh leads trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win Nebraska's NE-02 Democratic primary on May 12, driven by consistent polling dominance and recent fundraising gains in a crowded seven-candidate field that fragments opposition support. A January GBAO survey of 600 likely primary voters showed Cavanaugh at 43%, a 28-point edge over his nearest rival, with his share exceeding all others combined and fewer than one in four undecided. Cavanaugh overtook Denise Powell's early cash-on-hand lead with stronger Q4 2025 receipts, bolstering his path despite Powell's 10.5% odds from her activist profile and endorsements like EMILY's List. Minor candidates like Mark Johnston (withdrawn last year) and Evangelos Argyrakis trail at under 3% due to negligible name recognition and resources, with odds firming amid primary proximity and no major disruptions.

State Sen. John Cavanaugh leads trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win Nebraska's NE-02 Democratic primary on May 12, driven by consistent polling dominance and recent fundraising gains in a crowded seven-candidate field that fragments opposition support. A January GBAO survey of 600 likely primary voters showed Cavanaugh at 43%, a 28-point edge over his nearest rival, with his share exceeding all others combined and fewer than one in four undecided. Cavanaugh overtook Denise Powell's early cash-on-hand lead with stronger Q4 2025 receipts, bolstering his path despite Powell's 10.5% odds from her activist profile and endorsements like EMILY's List. Minor candidates like Mark Johnston (withdrawn last year) and Evangelos Argyrakis trail at under 3% due to negligible name recognition and resources, with odds firming amid primary proximity and no major disruptions.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02?

94%
Market icon

Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?

61%
Market icon

Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?

39%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Cavanaugh" at 85%, followed by "Denise Powell" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "John Cavanaugh" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Denise Powell" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.