Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican Party in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+27 Cook PVI, the nation's 7th most Republican seat) where he has won general elections by 73-77% margins since 2013. Recent candidate filings through early March—Smith and challenger Johnathon Tune in the GOP primary, versus four Democrats (Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard)—highlight a fragmented Democratic field ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election, reinforcing the district's rural conservative stronghold. While a major scandal, retirement announcement before the March 31 filing deadline, or extraordinary national Democratic turnout surge could shift odds, historical precedents suggest minimal risk to the GOP hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMO-08 House Election Winner
MO-08 House Election Winner
$21,867 Vol.
$21,867 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$21,867 Vol.
$21,867 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$11,748 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,119 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican Party in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+27 Cook PVI, the nation's 7th most Republican seat) where he has won general elections by 73-77% margins since 2013. Recent candidate filings through early March—Smith and challenger Johnathon Tune in the GOP primary, versus four Democrats (Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard)—highlight a fragmented Democratic field ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election, reinforcing the district's rural conservative stronghold. While a major scandal, retirement announcement before the March 31 filing deadline, or extraordinary national Democratic turnout surge could shift odds, historical precedents suggest minimal risk to the GOP hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$21,867End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican Party in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+27 Cook PVI, the nation's 7th most Republican seat) where he has won general elections by 73-77% margins since 2013. Recent candidate filings through early March—Smith and challenger Johnathon Tune in the GOP primary, versus four Democrats (Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard)—highlight a fragmented Democratic field ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election, reinforcing the district's rural conservative stronghold. While a major scandal, retirement announcement before the March 31 filing deadline, or extraordinary national Democratic turnout surge could shift odds, historical precedents suggest minimal risk to the GOP hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,867End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican Party in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+27 Cook PVI, the nation's 7th most Republican seat) where he has won general elections by 73-77% margins since 2013. Recent candidate filings through early March—Smith and challenger Johnathon Tune in the GOP primary, versus four Democrats (Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard)—highlight a fragmented Democratic field ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election, reinforcing the district's rural conservative stronghold. While a major scandal, retirement announcement before the March 31 filing deadline, or extraordinary national Democratic turnout surge could shift odds, historical precedents suggest minimal risk to the GOP hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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