US and Israeli forces continue Operation Epic Fury against Iran, now over five weeks since surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted ballistic missile sites, nuclear infrastructure, and IRGC command posts. On April 1-2, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel and Gulf states, with Houthis firing at southern Israel, prompting fresh US-Israeli retaliation and two more MQ-9 Reaper drone losses near Isfahan. President Trump claimed core objectives near completion but vowed strikes for two-three more weeks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and Pakistani backchannel talks, while Iran signals defiance without ceasefire concessions. Traders eye potential de-escalation via negotiations or escalation from ground operations as key timeline drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$46,592 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
<1%
April 2
1%
April 3
2%
April 4
2%
April 5
12%
April 6
11%
April 7
12%
April 8
12%
April 9
16%
April 10
42%
April 11
42%
April 12
41%
April 13
18%
April 14
11%
April 15
11%
April 16
39%
April 17
44%
April 18
44%
April 19
44%
April 20
44%
April 21
44%
April 22
44%
April 23
44%
April 24
45%
April 25
32%
April 26
44%
April 27
45%
April 28
44%
April 29
44%
April 30
43%
$46,592 Vol.
April 1
$6,029 Vol.
<1%
April 2
$4,888 Vol.
1%
April 3
$4,475 Vol.
2%
April 4
$111 Vol.
2%
April 5
$0 Vol.
12%
April 6
$13 Vol.
11%
April 7
$0 Vol.
12%
April 8
$1 Vol.
12%
April 9
$2,790 Vol.
16%
April 10
$0 Vol.
42%
April 11
$0 Vol.
42%
April 12
$0 Vol.
41%
April 13
$0 Vol.
18%
April 14
$4,464 Vol.
11%
April 15
$140 Vol.
11%
April 16
$0 Vol.
39%
April 17
$0 Vol.
44%
April 18
$0 Vol.
44%
April 19
$0 Vol.
44%
April 20
$0 Vol.
44%
April 21
$0 Vol.
44%
April 22
$0 Vol.
44%
April 23
$0 Vol.
44%
April 24
$0 Vol.
45%
April 25
$2,770 Vol.
32%
April 26
$0 Vol.
44%
April 27
$38 Vol.
45%
April 28
$0 Vol.
44%
April 29
$0 Vol.
44%
April 30
$20,873 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue Operation Epic Fury against Iran, now over five weeks since surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted ballistic missile sites, nuclear infrastructure, and IRGC command posts. On April 1-2, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel and Gulf states, with Houthis firing at southern Israel, prompting fresh US-Israeli retaliation and two more MQ-9 Reaper drone losses near Isfahan. President Trump claimed core objectives near completion but vowed strikes for two-three more weeks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and Pakistani backchannel talks, while Iran signals defiance without ceasefire concessions. Traders eye potential de-escalation via negotiations or escalation from ground operations as key timeline drivers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$46,592End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue Operation Epic Fury against Iran, now over five weeks since surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted ballistic missile sites, nuclear infrastructure, and IRGC command posts. On April 1-2, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel and Gulf states, with Houthis firing at southern Israel, prompting fresh US-Israeli retaliation and two more MQ-9 Reaper drone losses near Isfahan. President Trump claimed core objectives near completion but vowed strikes for two-three more weeks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and Pakistani backchannel talks, while Iran signals defiance without ceasefire concessions. Traders eye potential de-escalation via negotiations or escalation from ground operations as key timeline drivers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$46,592End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces continue Operation Epic Fury against Iran, now over five weeks since surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted ballistic missile sites, nuclear infrastructure, and IRGC command posts. On April 1-2, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel and Gulf states, with Houthis firing at southern Israel, prompting fresh US-Israeli retaliation and two more MQ-9 Reaper drone losses near Isfahan. President Trump claimed core objectives near completion but vowed strikes for two-three more weeks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and Pakistani backchannel talks, while Iran signals defiance without ceasefire concessions. Traders eye potential de-escalation via negotiations or escalation from ground operations as key timeline drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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