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Geopolitics·North Korea

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Market icon
Geopolitics·North Korea

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

8% chance
Polymarket

$54,326 Vol.

8% chance
Polymarket

$54,326 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus gives a 92.5% implied probability that Kim Jong Un will remain Supreme Leader of North Korea through December 31, 2026, reflecting his firm grip amid recent confirmations of authority. On March 22, state media reported his reappointment as president of state affairs by the Supreme People's Assembly, following public oversight of missile tests and directives for public health modernization. Longstanding health concerns—obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes noted since 2024—persist without evidence of incapacity, as officials sought foreign medicines but appearances continue unabated. State promotion of daughter Kim Ju Ae using elite titles signals controlled succession planning, not upheaval, in the opaque regime where no coups, purges, or challenges have emerged in recent months.

Trader consensus gives a 92.5% implied probability that Kim Jong Un will remain Supreme Leader of North Korea through December 31, 2026, reflecting his firm grip amid recent confirmations of authority. On March 22, state media reported his reappointment as president of state affairs by the Supreme People's Assembly, following public oversight of missile tests and directives for public health modernization. Longstanding health concerns—obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes noted since 2024—persist without evidence of incapacity, as officials sought foreign medicines but appearances continue unabated. State promotion of daughter Kim Ju Ae using elite titles signals controlled succession planning, not upheaval, in the opaque regime where no coups, purges, or challenges have emerged in recent months.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus gives a 92.5% implied probability that Kim Jong Un will remain Supreme Leader of North Korea through December 31, 2026, reflecting his firm grip amid recent confirmations of authority. On March 22, state media reported his reappointment as president of state affairs by the Supreme People's Assembly, following public oversight of missile tests and directives for public health modernization. Longstanding health concerns—obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes noted since 2024—persist without evidence of incapacity, as officials sought foreign medicines but appearances continue unabated. State promotion of daughter Kim Ju Ae using elite titles signals controlled succession planning, not upheaval, in the opaque regime where no coups, purges, or challenges have emerged in recent months.

Trader consensus gives a 92.5% implied probability that Kim Jong Un will remain Supreme Leader of North Korea through December 31, 2026, reflecting his firm grip amid recent confirmations of authority. On March 22, state media reported his reappointment as president of state affairs by the Supreme People's Assembly, following public oversight of missile tests and directives for public health modernization. Longstanding health concerns—obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes noted since 2024—persist without evidence of incapacity, as officials sought foreign medicines but appearances continue unabated. State promotion of daughter Kim Ju Ae using elite titles signals controlled succession planning, not upheaval, in the opaque regime where no coups, purges, or challenges have emerged in recent months.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 8% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 8¢, the market collectively assigns a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?" has generated $54.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?" is 8% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.