Iran's latest missile barrages against Israel on April 2, including strikes on northern regions and Gulf neighbors, underscore the ongoing escalation in the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28 with American and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran's military and nuclear sites following IAEA non-compliance findings. Despite significant degradation of Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—succeeded by his son Mojtaba—Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has launched over 88 waves of retaliation, targeting Israeli infrastructure and US bases. President Trump's address claiming the conflict nears completion contrasts with Tehran's vows of "crushing" responses, as traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of further airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, or diplomatic breakthroughs amid surging oil prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$67,209 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 2
97%
April 3
91%
April 4
88%
April 5
87%
April 6
88%
April 7
88%
April 8
80%
April 9
81%
April 10
78%
$67,209 Vol.
April 2
$23,567 Vol.
97%
April 3
$9,588 Vol.
91%
April 4
$2,111 Vol.
88%
April 5
$1,317 Vol.
87%
April 6
$158 Vol.
88%
April 7
$605 Vol.
88%
April 8
$1,136 Vol.
80%
April 9
$795 Vol.
81%
April 10
$552 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's latest missile barrages against Israel on April 2, including strikes on northern regions and Gulf neighbors, underscore the ongoing escalation in the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28 with American and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran's military and nuclear sites following IAEA non-compliance findings. Despite significant degradation of Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—succeeded by his son Mojtaba—Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has launched over 88 waves of retaliation, targeting Israeli infrastructure and US bases. President Trump's address claiming the conflict nears completion contrasts with Tehran's vows of "crushing" responses, as traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of further airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, or diplomatic breakthroughs amid surging oil prices.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volume
$67,209End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's latest missile barrages against Israel on April 2, including strikes on northern regions and Gulf neighbors, underscore the ongoing escalation in the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28 with American and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran's military and nuclear sites following IAEA non-compliance findings. Despite significant degradation of Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—succeeded by his son Mojtaba—Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has launched over 88 waves of retaliation, targeting Israeli infrastructure and US bases. President Trump's address claiming the conflict nears completion contrasts with Tehran's vows of "crushing" responses, as traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of further airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, or diplomatic breakthroughs amid surging oil prices.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$67,209End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's latest missile barrages against Israel on April 2, including strikes on northern regions and Gulf neighbors, underscore the ongoing escalation in the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28 with American and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran's military and nuclear sites following IAEA non-compliance findings. Despite significant degradation of Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—succeeded by his son Mojtaba—Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has launched over 88 waves of retaliation, targeting Israeli infrastructure and US bases. President Trump's address claiming the conflict nears completion contrasts with Tehran's vows of "crushing" responses, as traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks of further airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, or diplomatic breakthroughs amid surging oil prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions