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World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Market icon
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 65.4%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Masoud Pezeshkian 5.6%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.7%

Polymarket

$5,832,800 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 65.4%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Masoud Pezeshkian 5.6%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.7%

Polymarket

$5,832,800 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,129,450 Vol.

65%

Reza Pahlavi

$126,075 Vol.

9%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$236,424 Vol.

6%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$161,205 Vol.

5%

Hassan Rouhani

$266,185 Vol.

4%

Hassan Khomeini

$668,671 Vol.

3%

No Head of State

$363,669 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$92,168 Vol.

1%

Sadegh Larijani

$171,117 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$770,307 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$267,398 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$228,157 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$73,117 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$238,313 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$51,274 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$40,945 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$45,911 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$12,720 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$18,372 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$144,106 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$20,007 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$30,653 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$25,033 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$16,818 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$45,111 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$32,848 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$59,956 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$45,125 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$189,033 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$25,771 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 65.3% to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his swift selection by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in early March US-Israeli strikes, ensuring rapid regime continuity backed by hardline clerics and the IRGC. This familial succession quelled immediate instability, with Mojtaba issuing statements reaffirming support for anti-Israel proxies and Strait of Hormuz defenses, though his lack of public appearances has sparked unverified injury rumors dismissed by officials. Reza Pahlavi's 8.5% reflects lingering opposition hopes amid regional escalations, but absent defections or uprisings, low probabilities for reformists like Pezeshkian or Ghalibaf underscore entrenched hardliner control; external pressures or internal power struggles could still shift dynamics before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$5,832,800
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 65.3% to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his swift selection by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in early March US-Israeli strikes, ensuring rapid regime continuity backed by hardline clerics and the IRGC. This familial succession quelled immediate instability, with Mojtaba issuing statements reaffirming support for anti-Israel proxies and Strait of Hormuz defenses, though his lack of public appearances has sparked unverified injury rumors dismissed by officials. Reza Pahlavi's 8.5% reflects lingering opposition hopes amid regional escalations, but absent defections or uprisings, low probabilities for reformists like Pezeshkian or Ghalibaf underscore entrenched hardliner control; external pressures or internal power struggles could still shift dynamics before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$5,832,800
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 65%, followed by "Reza Pahlavi" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $5.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reza Pahlavi" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.