Trader consensus prices "No" at 87.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's rapid suppression of a reported early January 2026 plot against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, reportedly involving former President Hassan Rouhani-linked elements and foiled by security forces per French media. No verified follow-up attempts have emerged in the past two months, despite nationwide protests since late 2025 and ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since February 28 that have targeted military sites but failed to spark mass uprisings or military disloyalty. Recent Supreme Leader statements on March 20 dismissed overthrow expectations as miscalculations, while March 30 reports highlight intensified crackdowns on dissent amid economic strains from the war, bolstering regime cohesion through IRGC loyalty and surveillance. Barring unforeseen leadership health crises or battlefield collapses, structural barriers maintain stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$343,167 Vol.
$343,167 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$343,167 Vol.
$343,167 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 87.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's rapid suppression of a reported early January 2026 plot against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, reportedly involving former President Hassan Rouhani-linked elements and foiled by security forces per French media. No verified follow-up attempts have emerged in the past two months, despite nationwide protests since late 2025 and ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since February 28 that have targeted military sites but failed to spark mass uprisings or military disloyalty. Recent Supreme Leader statements on March 20 dismissed overthrow expectations as miscalculations, while March 30 reports highlight intensified crackdowns on dissent amid economic strains from the war, bolstering regime cohesion through IRGC loyalty and surveillance. Barring unforeseen leadership health crises or battlefield collapses, structural barriers maintain stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$343,167End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 87.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's rapid suppression of a reported early January 2026 plot against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, reportedly involving former President Hassan Rouhani-linked elements and foiled by security forces per French media. No verified follow-up attempts have emerged in the past two months, despite nationwide protests since late 2025 and ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since February 28 that have targeted military sites but failed to spark mass uprisings or military disloyalty. Recent Supreme Leader statements on March 20 dismissed overthrow expectations as miscalculations, while March 30 reports highlight intensified crackdowns on dissent amid economic strains from the war, bolstering regime cohesion through IRGC loyalty and surveillance. Barring unforeseen leadership health crises or battlefield collapses, structural barriers maintain stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$343,167End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 87.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's rapid suppression of a reported early January 2026 plot against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, reportedly involving former President Hassan Rouhani-linked elements and foiled by security forces per French media. No verified follow-up attempts have emerged in the past two months, despite nationwide protests since late 2025 and ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since February 28 that have targeted military sites but failed to spark mass uprisings or military disloyalty. Recent Supreme Leader statements on March 20 dismissed overthrow expectations as miscalculations, while March 30 reports highlight intensified crackdowns on dissent amid economic strains from the war, bolstering regime cohesion through IRGC loyalty and surveillance. Barring unforeseen leadership health crises or battlefield collapses, structural barriers maintain stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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