With Hungary's parliamentary election scheduled for April 12, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 67.5% implied probability to secure the most seats and form the next government, mirroring recent polls like Medián's March survey showing the party leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters. Péter Magyar's TISZA has widened its advantage over the past week through strong appeal to younger voters and urban turnout blocs disillusioned by economic stagnation, EU sanctions disputes, and 16 years of Fidesz incumbency under Viktor Orbán. Fidesz-KDNP at 32.5% retains a loyal rural base and by-election wins, but faces consolidation of anti-incumbent sentiment favoring TISZA in proportional representation and single-member districts. Fragmented smaller parties like DK and Momentum trail far behind. Final campaign events and undecided voter shifts could still influence the closely watched proportional list vote and path to majority government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
TISZA 68%
Fidesz-KDNP 33%
Momentum <1%
DK <1%
$48,902,481 Vol.
$48,902,481 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
68%
Fidesz-KDNP
33%
Momentum
<1%
DK
<1%
LMP
<1%
MSZP
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
KDNP
<1%
TISZA 68%
Fidesz-KDNP 33%
Momentum <1%
DK <1%
$48,902,481 Vol.
$48,902,481 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
$858,883 Vol.
68%
Fidesz-KDNP
$1,141,114 Vol.
33%
Momentum
$602,315 Vol.
<1%
DK
$4,876,095 Vol.
<1%
LMP
$14,325,703 Vol.
<1%
MSZP
$446,332 Vol.
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$470,862 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$7,088,495 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$14,786,563 Vol.
<1%
KDNP
$4,306,130 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election scheduled for April 12, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 67.5% implied probability to secure the most seats and form the next government, mirroring recent polls like Medián's March survey showing the party leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters. Péter Magyar's TISZA has widened its advantage over the past week through strong appeal to younger voters and urban turnout blocs disillusioned by economic stagnation, EU sanctions disputes, and 16 years of Fidesz incumbency under Viktor Orbán. Fidesz-KDNP at 32.5% retains a loyal rural base and by-election wins, but faces consolidation of anti-incumbent sentiment favoring TISZA in proportional representation and single-member districts. Fragmented smaller parties like DK and Momentum trail far behind. Final campaign events and undecided voter shifts could still influence the closely watched proportional list vote and path to majority government.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET
Volume
$48,902,481End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election scheduled for April 12, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 67.5% implied probability to secure the most seats and form the next government, mirroring recent polls like Medián's March survey showing the party leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters. Péter Magyar's TISZA has widened its advantage over the past week through strong appeal to younger voters and urban turnout blocs disillusioned by economic stagnation, EU sanctions disputes, and 16 years of Fidesz incumbency under Viktor Orbán. Fidesz-KDNP at 32.5% retains a loyal rural base and by-election wins, but faces consolidation of anti-incumbent sentiment favoring TISZA in proportional representation and single-member districts. Fragmented smaller parties like DK and Momentum trail far behind. Final campaign events and undecided voter shifts could still influence the closely watched proportional list vote and path to majority government.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volume
$48,902,481End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Hungary's parliamentary election scheduled for April 12, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 67.5% implied probability to secure the most seats and form the next government, mirroring recent polls like Medián's March survey showing the party leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters. Péter Magyar's TISZA has widened its advantage over the past week through strong appeal to younger voters and urban turnout blocs disillusioned by economic stagnation, EU sanctions disputes, and 16 years of Fidesz incumbency under Viktor Orbán. Fidesz-KDNP at 32.5% retains a loyal rural base and by-election wins, but faces consolidation of anti-incumbent sentiment favoring TISZA in proportional representation and single-member districts. Fragmented smaller parties like DK and Momentum trail far behind. Final campaign events and undecided voter shifts could still influence the closely watched proportional list vote and path to majority government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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