With Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away under its mixed single-member district and proportional representation system, trader consensus prices TISZA at 67.5% implied probability of securing the most seats, aligning with independent polls like Median's March 17-20 survey showing the party leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters—a widening margin from February. TISZA's surge draws from younger voters, pledges to unlock frozen EU funds, and backlash against prolonged Fidesz incumbency amid economic stagnation, while government-aligned polls depict a narrower Fidesz edge and highlight its rural by-election wins. High expected turnout could amplify opposition momentum in battleground districts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
TISZA 68%
Fidesz-KDNP 33%
Momentum <1%
DK <1%
$48,889,388 Vol.
$48,889,388 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
68%
Fidesz-KDNP
33%
Momentum
<1%
DK
<1%
LMP
<1%
MSZP
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
KDNP
<1%
TISZA 68%
Fidesz-KDNP 33%
Momentum <1%
DK <1%
$48,889,388 Vol.
$48,889,388 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
$857,139 Vol.
68%
Fidesz-KDNP
$1,139,978 Vol.
33%
Momentum
$601,142 Vol.
<1%
DK
$4,876,095 Vol.
<1%
LMP
$14,325,703 Vol.
<1%
MSZP
$446,332 Vol.
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$461,810 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$7,088,495 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$14,786,563 Vol.
<1%
KDNP
$4,306,130 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away under its mixed single-member district and proportional representation system, trader consensus prices TISZA at 67.5% implied probability of securing the most seats, aligning with independent polls like Median's March 17-20 survey showing the party leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters—a widening margin from February. TISZA's surge draws from younger voters, pledges to unlock frozen EU funds, and backlash against prolonged Fidesz incumbency amid economic stagnation, while government-aligned polls depict a narrower Fidesz edge and highlight its rural by-election wins. High expected turnout could amplify opposition momentum in battleground districts.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET
Volume
$48,889,388End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away under its mixed single-member district and proportional representation system, trader consensus prices TISZA at 67.5% implied probability of securing the most seats, aligning with independent polls like Median's March 17-20 survey showing the party leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters—a widening margin from February. TISZA's surge draws from younger voters, pledges to unlock frozen EU funds, and backlash against prolonged Fidesz incumbency amid economic stagnation, while government-aligned polls depict a narrower Fidesz edge and highlight its rural by-election wins. High expected turnout could amplify opposition momentum in battleground districts.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volume
$48,889,388End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away under its mixed single-member district and proportional representation system, trader consensus prices TISZA at 67.5% implied probability of securing the most seats, aligning with independent polls like Median's March 17-20 survey showing the party leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters—a widening margin from February. TISZA's surge draws from younger voters, pledges to unlock frozen EU funds, and backlash against prolonged Fidesz incumbency amid economic stagnation, while government-aligned polls depict a narrower Fidesz edge and highlight its rural by-election wins. High expected turnout could amplify opposition momentum in battleground districts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
67%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
84%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
93%
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