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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7.8%

Jon Ossoff 5.2%

Kamala Harris 4.0%

Polymarket

$971,896,065 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7.8%

Jon Ossoff 5.2%

Kamala Harris 4.0%

Polymarket

$971,896,065 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$18,173,378 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$7,294,819 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,254,074 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$9,050,556 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,692,514 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,125,067 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$7,397,704 Vol.

3%

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James Talarico

$5,598,932 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$11,793,370 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,913,916 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,932,019 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$5,415,105 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,746,282 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,422,463 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,090,268 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$13,841,696 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,533,724 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,936,495 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,600,930 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,059,875 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,186,502 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,197,629 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,268,410 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,680,239 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,843,793 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,518,239 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,430,860 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,618,746 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,268,446 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,286,902 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,962,127 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,886,558 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,017,612 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,701,528 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,477,744 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,143,944 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,374,394 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$28,075,842 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,641,508 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$34,023,812 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,567,216 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$40,132,384 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,658,861 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$32,065,935 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a wide-open Democratic presidential primary field for 2028, with California Governor Gavin Newsom commanding a 24.6% implied probability as the clear frontrunner, bolstered by a March 2026 POLITICO poll showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in their home-state primary matchup and his ongoing national profile-building through Trump critiques and fundraising. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 7.9% on progressive grassroots energy, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's 5.2% share stems from his viral anti-Trump speech and favorable Senate re-election dynamics amid GOP infighting. Harris lags at 4.0% amid post-2024 reassessments. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, where swing-state incumbents like Ossoff or governors with strong turnout paths gain endorsements and donor momentum ahead of the invisible primary.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$971,896,065
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a wide-open Democratic presidential primary field for 2028, with California Governor Gavin Newsom commanding a 24.6% implied probability as the clear frontrunner, bolstered by a March 2026 POLITICO poll showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in their home-state primary matchup and his ongoing national profile-building through Trump critiques and fundraising. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 7.9% on progressive grassroots energy, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's 5.2% share stems from his viral anti-Trump speech and favorable Senate re-election dynamics amid GOP infighting. Harris lags at 4.0% amid post-2024 reassessments. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, where swing-state incumbents like Ossoff or governors with strong turnout paths gain endorsements and donor momentum ahead of the invisible primary.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$971,896,065
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $971.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.