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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.4%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.0%

Polymarket

$973,425,929 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.4%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.0%

Polymarket

$973,425,929 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$18,298,571 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$7,492,290 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,258,055 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$9,058,439 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,697,266 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,156,318 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$5,681,303 Vol.

3%

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Jon Stewart

$11,999,615 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,924,101 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$7,724,416 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,940,914 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$5,415,845 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,753,326 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,428,036 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,096,746 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$13,844,277 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,539,657 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,964,916 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,603,032 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,082,466 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,191,851 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,205,207 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,693,233 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,268,662 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,863,775 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,541,718 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,472,565 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,627,693 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,283,017 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,289,615 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,969,532 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,021,813 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,712,999 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,484,436 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,159,512 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,378,156 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$28,087,625 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,646,828 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,941,757 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$34,028,907 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,730,506 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$40,145,894 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,664,290 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$32,065,935 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 25% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by recent K Street surveys identifying him as the party's strongest figure amid President Trump's second term, alongside early national polls placing him atop contenders and a commanding edge in California primary surveys. Progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 9%, buoyed by fresh pledges against Israel aid funding that energize the left wing, while Sen. Jon Ossoff at 5% draws support from his youth and Georgia battleground profile. Post-2024 loss under Kamala Harris (now 4%), the wide-open invisible primary fragments odds below leaders; 2026 midterms, fundraising, and early-state polling could consolidate backing for governors or senators with national visibility and anti-Trump records.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$973,425,929
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 25% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by recent K Street surveys identifying him as the party's strongest figure amid President Trump's second term, alongside early national polls placing him atop contenders and a commanding edge in California primary surveys. Progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 9%, buoyed by fresh pledges against Israel aid funding that energize the left wing, while Sen. Jon Ossoff at 5% draws support from his youth and Georgia battleground profile. Post-2024 loss under Kamala Harris (now 4%), the wide-open invisible primary fragments odds below leaders; 2026 midterms, fundraising, and early-state polling could consolidate backing for governors or senators with national visibility and anti-Trump records.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$973,425,929
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $973.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.