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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.5%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.0%

Polymarket

$973,047,218 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.5%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.0%

Polymarket

$973,047,218 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$18,247,082 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$7,421,692 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,257,581 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$9,055,721 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,695,821 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,154,296 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$5,650,630 Vol.

3%

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Jon Stewart

$11,912,809 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,919,340 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$7,693,429 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,938,034 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$5,415,825 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,753,166 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,426,117 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,093,243 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$13,842,989 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,538,160 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,960,843 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,601,653 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,078,685 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,188,383 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,204,001 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,268,410 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,689,385 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,859,621 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,530,330 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,472,421 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,627,617 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,282,797 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,289,241 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,967,579 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,021,129 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,710,499 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,484,045 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,159,129 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,375,119 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$28,086,436 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,644,567 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,941,735 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$34,027,721 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,692,258 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$32,065,935 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$40,144,408 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,661,932 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.6% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by recent POLITICO polling from mid-March showing him dominating Kamala Harris in a California primary matchup, reinforcing his executive experience as term-limited governor and national profile amid party postmortems on 2024 losses. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez climbed to 8.4% after a nearly 40% share surge on Polymarket, fueled by progressive demands for bold new leadership. Jon Ossoff's 5.3% reflects growing Senate visibility in Georgia battleground dynamics. This fragmented, wide-open field—lacking a clear frontrunner above 25%—hinges on 2026 midterm outcomes, early-state polling, fundraising tallies, and establishment endorsements to consolidate momentum.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$973,047,218
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.6% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by recent POLITICO polling from mid-March showing him dominating Kamala Harris in a California primary matchup, reinforcing his executive experience as term-limited governor and national profile amid party postmortems on 2024 losses. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez climbed to 8.4% after a nearly 40% share surge on Polymarket, fueled by progressive demands for bold new leadership. Jon Ossoff's 5.3% reflects growing Senate visibility in Georgia battleground dynamics. This fragmented, wide-open field—lacking a clear frontrunner above 25%—hinges on 2026 midterm outcomes, early-state polling, fundraising tallies, and establishment endorsements to consolidate momentum.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$973,047,218
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $973 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.