Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin, who captured 73% of the vote in the 2024 general election, seeks re-election in California's 15th Congressional District—a Safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with a D+26 Partisan Voter Index, reflecting its Bay Area strongholds in San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party stems from this structural edge and a lopsided June 2 top-two primary field post-March 6 filing deadline, featuring Mullin alongside fellow Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar against lone Republican Charles Hoelter. Realistic challenges would require a primary upset advancing Hoelter, coupled with a major Mullin scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or a powerful national Republican midterm wave before the November 3 general election—scenarios at odds with historical incumbent retention rates in safe districts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$34,640 Vol.
$34,640 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$34,640 Vol.
$34,640 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$26,896 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$7,744 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin, who captured 73% of the vote in the 2024 general election, seeks re-election in California's 15th Congressional District—a Safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with a D+26 Partisan Voter Index, reflecting its Bay Area strongholds in San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party stems from this structural edge and a lopsided June 2 top-two primary field post-March 6 filing deadline, featuring Mullin alongside fellow Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar against lone Republican Charles Hoelter. Realistic challenges would require a primary upset advancing Hoelter, coupled with a major Mullin scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or a powerful national Republican midterm wave before the November 3 general election—scenarios at odds with historical incumbent retention rates in safe districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$34,640End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin, who captured 73% of the vote in the 2024 general election, seeks re-election in California's 15th Congressional District—a Safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with a D+26 Partisan Voter Index, reflecting its Bay Area strongholds in San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party stems from this structural edge and a lopsided June 2 top-two primary field post-March 6 filing deadline, featuring Mullin alongside fellow Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar against lone Republican Charles Hoelter. Realistic challenges would require a primary upset advancing Hoelter, coupled with a major Mullin scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or a powerful national Republican midterm wave before the November 3 general election—scenarios at odds with historical incumbent retention rates in safe districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,640End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin, who captured 73% of the vote in the 2024 general election, seeks re-election in California's 15th Congressional District—a Safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with a D+26 Partisan Voter Index, reflecting its Bay Area strongholds in San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party stems from this structural edge and a lopsided June 2 top-two primary field post-March 6 filing deadline, featuring Mullin alongside fellow Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar against lone Republican Charles Hoelter. Realistic challenges would require a primary upset advancing Hoelter, coupled with a major Mullin scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or a powerful national Republican midterm wave before the November 3 general election—scenarios at odds with historical incumbent retention rates in safe districts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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