CA-04 Primary Winners

Name: CA-04 Primary Winners
Start: 2026-02-26T22:43:11.256Z
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Elections·Primaries

CA-04 Primary Winners

$17,141 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026

Mike Thompson

$6,439 Vol.

96%

Eric Jones

$2,717 Vol.

91%

Trevor Merrell

$6,109 Vol.

20%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Vol.

Sharon Brown

$0 Vol.

Mandy Ghusar

$698 Vol.

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 Vol.

John Wesley Tyler

$549 Vol.

41%

$17,141 Vol.

Mike Thompson

$6,439 Vol.

96%

Eric Jones

$2,717 Vol.

91%

Trevor Merrell

$6,109 Vol.

20%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Vol.

Sharon Brown

$0 Vol.

Mandy Ghusar

$698 Vol.

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 Vol.

John Wesley Tyler

$549 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary?

90%

Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary?

98%

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?

91%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04 Primary Winners" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 96%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 91%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-04 Primary Winners" has generated $17.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-04 Primary Winners," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04 Primary Winners" is "Mike Thompson" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 91%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04 Primary Winners" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "CA-04 Primary Winners." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $17.1K traded on “CA-04 Primary Winners,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "CA-04 Primary Winners," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 96¢ for "Mike Thompson" in the "CA-04 Primary Winners" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 96% chance that "Mike Thompson" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 96¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 4¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "CA-04 Primary Winners" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 2, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "CA-04 Primary Winners" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "CA-04 Primary Winners." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

CA-04 Primary Winners

CA-04 Primary Winners

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Related

Comments

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "CA-04 Primary Winners" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "CA-04 Primary Winners" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "CA-04 Primary Winners"?

What are the current odds for "CA-04 Primary Winners"?

How will "CA-04 Primary Winners" be resolved?

Can I follow "CA-04 Primary Winners" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "CA-04 Primary Winners" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "CA-04 Primary Winners"?

What does a price of 96¢ for "Mike Thompson" mean?

When does the "CA-04 Primary Winners" market close?

What are traders saying about "CA-04 Primary Winners"?

What is Polymarket?