Progressive Bulgaria (PB) dominates trader consensus with 95.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election for the 240-seat National Assembly, fueled by Alpha Research polls from late March to early April showing PB at 30-31%, doubling GERB–SDS's 21% amid proportional representation dynamics. This commanding position reflects anti-corruption sentiment after the December 2025 Zhelyazkov government resignation triggered by budget protests, amplified by former President Rumen Radev's March alliance registration boosting PB's pro-EU appeal in Bulgaria's eighth vote since 2021. While polling averages confirm the gap, upset scenarios include nationalist turnout surges for Vazrazhdane or Velichie, incumbents consolidating late, polling errors from fragmented past elections, or scandals before campaigning ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPB 95.4%
GERB–SDS 3.0%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$77,015 Vol.
$77,015 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB
95%
GERB–SDS
3%
PP–DB
1%
ITN
<1%
Velichie
<1%
APS
<1%
BSP-United Left
<1%
MECH
<1%
Vazrazhdane
<1%
DPS
<1%
PB 95.4%
GERB–SDS 3.0%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$77,015 Vol.
$77,015 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB
$16,719 Vol.
95%
GERB–SDS
$7,386 Vol.
3%
PP–DB
$8,850 Vol.
1%
ITN
$7,123 Vol.
<1%
Velichie
$6,753 Vol.
<1%
APS
$6,673 Vol.
<1%
BSP-United Left
$6,530 Vol.
<1%
MECH
$7,197 Vol.
<1%
Vazrazhdane
$5,533 Vol.
<1%
DPS
$4,252 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB) dominates trader consensus with 95.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election for the 240-seat National Assembly, fueled by Alpha Research polls from late March to early April showing PB at 30-31%, doubling GERB–SDS's 21% amid proportional representation dynamics. This commanding position reflects anti-corruption sentiment after the December 2025 Zhelyazkov government resignation triggered by budget protests, amplified by former President Rumen Radev's March alliance registration boosting PB's pro-EU appeal in Bulgaria's eighth vote since 2021. While polling averages confirm the gap, upset scenarios include nationalist turnout surges for Vazrazhdane or Velichie, incumbents consolidating late, polling errors from fragmented past elections, or scandals before campaigning ends.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Volume
$77,015End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB) dominates trader consensus with 95.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election for the 240-seat National Assembly, fueled by Alpha Research polls from late March to early April showing PB at 30-31%, doubling GERB–SDS's 21% amid proportional representation dynamics. This commanding position reflects anti-corruption sentiment after the December 2025 Zhelyazkov government resignation triggered by budget protests, amplified by former President Rumen Radev's March alliance registration boosting PB's pro-EU appeal in Bulgaria's eighth vote since 2021. While polling averages confirm the gap, upset scenarios include nationalist turnout surges for Vazrazhdane or Velichie, incumbents consolidating late, polling errors from fragmented past elections, or scandals before campaigning ends.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$77,015End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB) dominates trader consensus with 95.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election for the 240-seat National Assembly, fueled by Alpha Research polls from late March to early April showing PB at 30-31%, doubling GERB–SDS's 21% amid proportional representation dynamics. This commanding position reflects anti-corruption sentiment after the December 2025 Zhelyazkov government resignation triggered by budget protests, amplified by former President Rumen Radev's March alliance registration boosting PB's pro-EU appeal in Bulgaria's eighth vote since 2021. While polling averages confirm the gap, upset scenarios include nationalist turnout surges for Vazrazhdane or Velichie, incumbents consolidating late, polling errors from fragmented past elections, or scandals before campaigning ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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