Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a clear edge over Democrat Jonathan Nez in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a seat rated Likely Republican by forecasters with an R+7 partisan voting index. Crane’s 2024 reelection victory by nine points and strong primary performance established baseline support in this rural, northeastern Arizona district that includes Prescott, Flagstaff, and significant portions of the Navajo Nation. Recent polling averages show Crane ahead by roughly six points, with surveys from August placing him between 46% and 53%. Nez, the former Navajo Nation president, has narrowed gaps through targeted outreach to Native voters and emphasis on water policy, but faces structural headwinds in a district Trump carried by about 15 points in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed in July primaries, and the November 3 general election features limited third-party involvement.