Recent opinion polls, including the IANS-Matrize survey from mid-March 2026 projecting BJP to secure over 96 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, have solidified trader consensus at 96% implied probability for a BJP victory ahead of the April 9 single-phase polling. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's NDA alliance, bolstered by partners like AGP and BPF contesting 90-plus seats collectively, benefits from strong incumbency, development-focused campaigns, and recent high-profile rallies by PM Narendra Modi on April 1. Opposition Congress-led Mahajot trails significantly in surveys, hampered by internal divisions and weaker vote share projections of 26-28 seats. With results due May 4, a dramatic upset would require unforeseen opposition consolidation, low BJP turnout in tribal belts, or last-minute scandals, though structural advantages favor the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAssam Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner
BJP 96%
INC 2.5%
NPEP <1%
AIUDF <1%
$31,699 Vol.
$31,699 Vol.
May 20, 2026
BJP
96%
INC
2%
NPEP
1%
AIUDF
<1%
CPI
<1%
CPI(M)
<1%
NCP
<1%
AITC
<1%
AGP
<1%
BPF
<1%
BJP 96%
INC 2.5%
NPEP <1%
AIUDF <1%
$31,699 Vol.
$31,699 Vol.
May 20, 2026
BJP
$4,381 Vol.
96%
INC
$3,632 Vol.
2%
NPEP
$3,334 Vol.
1%
AIUDF
$3,111 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$3,475 Vol.
<1%
CPI(M)
$2,733 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$2,551 Vol.
<1%
AITC
$2,962 Vol.
<1%
AGP
$2,819 Vol.
<1%
BPF
$2,703 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Recent opinion polls, including the IANS-Matrize survey from mid-March 2026 projecting BJP to secure over 96 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, have solidified trader consensus at 96% implied probability for a BJP victory ahead of the April 9 single-phase polling. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's NDA alliance, bolstered by partners like AGP and BPF contesting 90-plus seats collectively, benefits from strong incumbency, development-focused campaigns, and recent high-profile rallies by PM Narendra Modi on April 1. Opposition Congress-led Mahajot trails significantly in surveys, hampered by internal divisions and weaker vote share projections of 26-28 seats. With results due May 4, a dramatic upset would require unforeseen opposition consolidation, low BJP turnout in tribal belts, or last-minute scandals, though structural advantages favor the frontrunner.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$31,699End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Recent opinion polls, including the IANS-Matrize survey from mid-March 2026 projecting BJP to secure over 96 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, have solidified trader consensus at 96% implied probability for a BJP victory ahead of the April 9 single-phase polling. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's NDA alliance, bolstered by partners like AGP and BPF contesting 90-plus seats collectively, benefits from strong incumbency, development-focused campaigns, and recent high-profile rallies by PM Narendra Modi on April 1. Opposition Congress-led Mahajot trails significantly in surveys, hampered by internal divisions and weaker vote share projections of 26-28 seats. With results due May 4, a dramatic upset would require unforeseen opposition consolidation, low BJP turnout in tribal belts, or last-minute scandals, though structural advantages favor the frontrunner.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Volume
$31,699End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent opinion polls, including the IANS-Matrize survey from mid-March 2026 projecting BJP to secure over 96 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, have solidified trader consensus at 96% implied probability for a BJP victory ahead of the April 9 single-phase polling. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's NDA alliance, bolstered by partners like AGP and BPF contesting 90-plus seats collectively, benefits from strong incumbency, development-focused campaigns, and recent high-profile rallies by PM Narendra Modi on April 1. Opposition Congress-led Mahajot trails significantly in surveys, hampered by internal divisions and weaker vote share projections of 26-28 seats. With results due May 4, a dramatic upset would require unforeseen opposition consolidation, low BJP turnout in tribal belts, or last-minute scandals, though structural advantages favor the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
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