Recent IRI and EVN polls from February 2026 show Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract leading voter preferences at 24-30% among likely voters in the June 7 parliamentary elections under proportional representation, ahead of fragmented opposition like Strong Armenia (9-11%) and Armenia Alliance (3-4%), with 28-40% undecided or refusing to answer. Traders price Civil Contract's 84% implied probability to win the most seats reflecting incumbency advantage, modeled gains from non-committed voters prioritizing improved security and peace amid Azerbaijan tensions, and opposition vote-splitting below thresholds. Pashinyan's March 26 warning of potential war without a constitutional majority frames the contest as peace versus escalation, boosting sentiment despite polling averages suggesting only a relative plurality; high turnout could tip balances as campaign intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCivil Contract 84%
Armenia Alliance 13%
Bright Armenia 3.2%
I Have Honor Alliance 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 7, 2026
Civil Contract
84%
Armenia Alliance
13%
Bright Armenia
3%
I Have Honor Alliance
2%
Armenian National Congress
<1%
Prosperous Armenia
<1%
Hanrapetutyun Party
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
<1%
Heritage
<1%
Civil Contract 84%
Armenia Alliance 13%
Bright Armenia 3.2%
I Have Honor Alliance 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 7, 2026
Civil Contract
$0 Vol.
84%
Armenia Alliance
$4,170 Vol.
13%
Bright Armenia
$0 Vol.
3%
I Have Honor Alliance
$0 Vol.
2%
Armenian National Congress
$0 Vol.
<1%
Prosperous Armenia
$0 Vol.
<1%
Hanrapetutyun Party
$0 Vol.
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
$0 Vol.
<1%
Heritage
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Recent IRI and EVN polls from February 2026 show Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract leading voter preferences at 24-30% among likely voters in the June 7 parliamentary elections under proportional representation, ahead of fragmented opposition like Strong Armenia (9-11%) and Armenia Alliance (3-4%), with 28-40% undecided or refusing to answer. Traders price Civil Contract's 84% implied probability to win the most seats reflecting incumbency advantage, modeled gains from non-committed voters prioritizing improved security and peace amid Azerbaijan tensions, and opposition vote-splitting below thresholds. Pashinyan's March 26 warning of potential war without a constitutional majority frames the contest as peace versus escalation, boosting sentiment despite polling averages suggesting only a relative plurality; high turnout could tip balances as campaign intensifies.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$4,170End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Recent IRI and EVN polls from February 2026 show Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract leading voter preferences at 24-30% among likely voters in the June 7 parliamentary elections under proportional representation, ahead of fragmented opposition like Strong Armenia (9-11%) and Armenia Alliance (3-4%), with 28-40% undecided or refusing to answer. Traders price Civil Contract's 84% implied probability to win the most seats reflecting incumbency advantage, modeled gains from non-committed voters prioritizing improved security and peace amid Azerbaijan tensions, and opposition vote-splitting below thresholds. Pashinyan's March 26 warning of potential war without a constitutional majority frames the contest as peace versus escalation, boosting sentiment despite polling averages suggesting only a relative plurality; high turnout could tip balances as campaign intensifies.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Volume
$4,170End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent IRI and EVN polls from February 2026 show Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract leading voter preferences at 24-30% among likely voters in the June 7 parliamentary elections under proportional representation, ahead of fragmented opposition like Strong Armenia (9-11%) and Armenia Alliance (3-4%), with 28-40% undecided or refusing to answer. Traders price Civil Contract's 84% implied probability to win the most seats reflecting incumbency advantage, modeled gains from non-committed voters prioritizing improved security and peace amid Azerbaijan tensions, and opposition vote-splitting below thresholds. Pashinyan's March 26 warning of potential war without a constitutional majority frames the contest as peace versus escalation, boosting sentiment despite polling averages suggesting only a relative plurality; high turnout could tip balances as campaign intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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