KMT candidates hold structural advantages heading into Taiwan’s November 28 local elections, with the party currently controlling 14 of 22 local executive posts and maintaining leads in most modeling forecasts across the six special municipalities and key counties. Incumbency, established local organizational networks, and voter preferences in traditional strongholds underpin the 89.5% market price, even as select races such as Taipei remain competitive in recent surveys. DPP favorability has edged higher nationally amid President Lai Ching-te’s steady approval ratings, yet this has not translated into broad enough gains to challenge KMT dominance in the aggregate seat count. TPP support stays marginal at the local level, limiting any meaningful split in the pan-Blue vote. Traders appear to weigh these baseline patterns more heavily than individual campaign rallies or legislative maneuvers in the final weeks.