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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.0%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.1%

Polymarket

$478,495,521 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.0%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.1%

Polymarket

$478,495,521 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,314,817 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$7,016,174 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,424,307 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,456,366 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,074,582 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,525,375 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,597,924 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,328,898 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,586,141 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,408,741 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,453,846 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,889,818 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,933,393 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,693,623 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,815,088 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,093,210 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,367,502 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,089,682 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,823,729 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,292,326 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,464,824 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,681,370 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,479,407 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,128,826 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,849,625 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,459,281 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,607,978 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,910,848 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,492,982 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,368,640 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,600,970 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,338,535 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,109,446 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,173,934 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,295,267 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,349,030 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads trader consensus at 17.6% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.7%, driven by a March 30 CPAC straw poll naming Vance the top Republican nominee pick and President Trump's prior endorsement positioning him as MAGA heir apparent amid term limits barring Trump's third run. Newsom's near-parity reflects Democratic early polling strength despite critiques of his California governance record. The tight top contenders underscore the market's early-stage uncertainty pre-2026 midterms and 2028 primaries, where swing state performances, party conventions, and national polling shifts could separate frontrunners like Senator Marco Rubio (10.7%) or emerging challengers.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$478,495,521
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads trader consensus at 17.6% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.7%, driven by a March 30 CPAC straw poll naming Vance the top Republican nominee pick and President Trump's prior endorsement positioning him as MAGA heir apparent amid term limits barring Trump's third run. Newsom's near-parity reflects Democratic early polling strength despite critiques of his California governance record. The tight top contenders underscore the market's early-stage uncertainty pre-2026 midterms and 2028 primaries, where swing state performances, party conventions, and national polling shifts could separate frontrunners like Senator Marco Rubio (10.7%) or emerging challengers.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$478,495,521
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $478.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.