Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% chance against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early 2026 and the smooth ascension of his son Mojtaba as successor. Brutal crackdowns quelled widespread protests from late 2025 through January 2026, which claimed thousands of lives per local reports, while recent executions of anti-regime demonstrators and expanded arrests—highlighted in ACLED's April 2026 update—have further stifled dissent. Despite U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting regime assets and proxies, no significant military defections or unified opposition have emerged, with analysts noting the security apparatus's cohesion and lack of viable alternatives amid economic strains from sanctions. Upcoming leadership consolidation and regional diplomacy could sustain stability through 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$13,137,673 Vol.
$13,137,673 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$13,137,673 Vol.
$13,137,673 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% chance against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early 2026 and the smooth ascension of his son Mojtaba as successor. Brutal crackdowns quelled widespread protests from late 2025 through January 2026, which claimed thousands of lives per local reports, while recent executions of anti-regime demonstrators and expanded arrests—highlighted in ACLED's April 2026 update—have further stifled dissent. Despite U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting regime assets and proxies, no significant military defections or unified opposition have emerged, with analysts noting the security apparatus's cohesion and lack of viable alternatives amid economic strains from sanctions. Upcoming leadership consolidation and regional diplomacy could sustain stability through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$13,137,673End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% chance against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early 2026 and the smooth ascension of his son Mojtaba as successor. Brutal crackdowns quelled widespread protests from late 2025 through January 2026, which claimed thousands of lives per local reports, while recent executions of anti-regime demonstrators and expanded arrests—highlighted in ACLED's April 2026 update—have further stifled dissent. Despite U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting regime assets and proxies, no significant military defections or unified opposition have emerged, with analysts noting the security apparatus's cohesion and lack of viable alternatives amid economic strains from sanctions. Upcoming leadership consolidation and regional diplomacy could sustain stability through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,137,734End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% chance against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early 2026 and the smooth ascension of his son Mojtaba as successor. Brutal crackdowns quelled widespread protests from late 2025 through January 2026, which claimed thousands of lives per local reports, while recent executions of anti-regime demonstrators and expanded arrests—highlighted in ACLED's April 2026 update—have further stifled dissent. Despite U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting regime assets and proxies, no significant military defections or unified opposition have emerged, with analysts noting the security apparatus's cohesion and lack of viable alternatives amid economic strains from sanctions. Upcoming leadership consolidation and regional diplomacy could sustain stability through 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions